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The withdrawal of southwest monsoon will gather pace from tomorrow when it is forecast to start exiting from peninsular India.
An India Met Department said that the line of withdrawal now touches Ujjain (Madhya Pradesh) and Vadodara and Porbandar (Gujarat).
With a day left for the close of the season, southwest monsoon 2014 is seen leaving behind a deficit of 12 per cent in rainfall, a figure showing on the penultimate day.
AUTUMNAL REGIME
International models say that the withdrawal process may ‘show better sense of purpose’ from tomorrow when dry westerlies-turned-northeasterlies from northwest and central India would start blowing into peninsular India.
This would establish the dry and progressively cooler autumnal weather regime from the northwest into central and peninsular India from early October.
But rains would continue to lash parts of coastal and south interior Karnataka, Kerala, and adjoining south Tamil Nadu for another 10 more or days so, as per latest outlook.
A causative upper air cyclonic circulation has moved away from the Comorin-Lakshadweep region out into the open waters of southwest Arabian Sea, and away from the west coast of India.
UNSETTLED WEATHER
But a band of southeasterly winds blowing into the system continues to grace the southern peninsula and is also interacting with remnant southwesterly-to-southerly flows from the Arabian Sea to unsettle the atmosphere and trigger thundershowers.
In fact, thunder activity and lightning have peaked along the coastal areas of Kerala and Karnataka as the southwest monsoon prepares to sign off from its last vantage points over the Indian landmass.
The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees the rain rebuilding over Sri Lanka and adjoining Indian peninsula from October 7.
This could likely lead to the onset of northeast monsoon over the region, heralded by a weather system originating from the northwest Pacific/South China Sea.
India Met Department sees rain or thundershowers at many places of the west coast and south interior Karnataka as also few places over Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands from October 3 to 7.
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