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The low-pressure area over northwest India has weakened this morning after its heavy torrents claimed more than a hundred lives in hilly Jammu and Kashmir.
The ‘low’ is currently positioned over Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana, and is expected to further weaken.
SUCCESSOR LANDS
But a successor from the Bay of Bengal has checked into land over Odisha and Chhattisgarh and intensified a round into a well-marked low-pressure area.
India Met Department has forecast heavy to very heavy rain over Vidarbha; Marathawada; east Madhya Pradesh; Chhattisgarh; Odisha; and Telangana for the rest of today.
Heavy rain will lash Jammu and Kashmir; west Madhya Pradesh; Madhya Maharasthra; Konan-Goa; coastal Andhra Pradesh; coastal Karnataka; and Kerala.
As for tomorrow, heavy to very heavy rainfall is indicated over Marathawada; Maharashtra; Konkan-Goa; Chhattisgarh; west Madhya Pradesh; and Vidarbha.
It will be heavy over east Gujarat; Telangana; coastal Karnataka; and Kerala.
TARGET WEST M.P.
On Tuesday, the heavy to very heavy rainfall regime will be move into Konkan-Goa; Madhya Maharashtra; and east Gujarat.
Heavy rain will lash coastal Karnataka; Kerala; west Madhya Pradesh; and Marathawada.
Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Centre sees this ‘low’ turning aggressive mostly over west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and south Gujarat.
The west coast also would be in the reckoning here with Mumbai, Konkan-Goa and coastal Karnataka expected to witness another round of heavy rainfall.
Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra may also receive varying amounts of moderate to heavy rainfall during the rest of the week.
STEERING NORTH
An extended forecast by both India Met Department and the US Centre indicates that the ‘low’ may get steered to the north from west Madhya Pradesh towards the Himalayan foothills.
This would cause it to traverse southwest Uttar Pradesh and Delhi and possibly interact with passing western disturbances to trigger showers over Punjab, north Rajasthan and western parts of Jammu and Kashmir during this week as well.
On their part, the east-moving western disturbances would roll down a wet cover over eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand and the hills of West Bengal.
India Met Department does not indicate formation of another rain-bearing ‘low’ in the Bay of Bengal for another week.
ANOTHER ‘LOW’?
But the US Climate Prediction Centre suspects that a system could still form in the Bay and bring showers to east and east-central India right until the 19{+t}{+h} of this month.
What lends credence to this view is that a low-pressure wave is being triggered in the South China Sea with a track to the west into Indo-china and possibly into the Bay.
The front-end of an upper level wave that support cloud formation over the seas has now exited the Bay and entered the South China Sea but with a tail wagging in the east of the Bay, as per the US Centre’s analysis.
The tail will keep this part of the Bay in suspended animation with respect to the formation of the next ‘low’ right until Tuesday next.
If the low-pressure wave from South China Sea were to enter this steaming cauldron, it could possibly cook up the next rain-bearing system here.
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