Agri Business

Run-up to monsoon onset to light up after May 25

Vinson Kurian Kottayam | Updated on May 20, 2011


Global models indicate a burst of southwesterly would sweep into Bay of Bengal around May 27, the fringes to the far east of which could also whip up a tropical cyclone in the northwest Pacific.

The European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts even as the westward-moving cyclone hits the Philippines archipelago and takes a rebound to the east-northeast, it would also facilitate the onset of southwest monsoon over the Kerala coast.

This would be preceded by the onset of monsoon over the northeast of India and the initiation of a low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal. Thus, the onset would likely have been accomplished in near-copybook style.

No possibility of a near-sea rogue weather system that could usurp the onset phase is still being forecast; instead the ‘pull' of the brewing northwest Pacific cyclone can only help boost its prospects and expedite the onset.

According to Dr Paul Roundy, renowned tracker of ocean weather systems, there is a possibility that the Gujarat-Mumbai coast might just witness some enhanced activity in the early phase of the onset.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction suggests the formation of the offshore vortex in the run up to the onset with maximum convection being set off over the Lakshadweep in southeast Arabian Sea.

Meanwhile, an expansive pre-monsoon phase activity on show in east India and the northeast as tremendous moisture transport is being facilitated from nearby Bay of Bengal.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) weather update on Friday said that fairly widespread rainfall was reported from West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

It was scattered over Bihar and isolated over the western Himalayan region, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

On Thursday, heat wave conditions were prevailing over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha. The highest maximum temperature of 47.4°C was recorded at Pilani in Rajasthan.

Mainly dry weather has been forecast over northwest, central and adjoining east India until Wednesday. A rise in maximum temperatures by 2 to 4 deg Celsius is likely over northwest and adjoining central India during this period.

Published on May 20, 2011

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