Agri Business

Storm '05A' may not reach cyclone status

Priya sundarajan | | Updated on: Nov 26, 2011
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Updated forecast from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) is less optimistic than previously on the scope for intensification of the numbered cyclone '05A' (a tropical depression) over southeast Arabian Sea off India's southwest coast.

The storm is now expected to enter an area of increasing vertical wind shear before 20 deg North latitude (off the Konkan coast) and less warm sea waters in the region. For the time being, however, all these are supportive for intensification of the system.

A western disturbance, perched on a vantage point over North Pakistan and across the border to the east over Jammu and Kashmir, will have a major role in deciding the track of 05A as it enters central Arabian Sea and also its intensity.

Given this outlook, the strenghening of the system into a tropical cyclone is being discounted, but global models are converged on the track guidance.

As per this, the storm will take a re-curvature and steer itself to the northeast-to-east track towards Karachi and adjoining southwest Rajasthan and northwest Gujarat, considerably losing strength as it approaches for a landfall.

The JTWC expects the system to reach intensity prior to taking the recurvature.

Published on November 26, 2011

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