The incoming western disturbance affecting the western Himalayas is now seen to being more productive than thought earlier and could set off weather over not just the hills but also over the plains over the weekend and into the next.

The system could get accentuated further on its eastward movement after being influenced by southeasterlies blowing in from the Bay of Bengal, possibly developing a circulation over east India.

This is what would trigger off a string of thundershowers over east India, the northeast, east coast and later over peninsular south in conjunction likely with a circulation spinning in from the Arabian Sea or equatorial Indian Ocean (south of peninsular tip).

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) announcement on Friday afternoon said that the westerly activity over northwest India is far from over with a follow-up system being forecast on Wednesday.

This is in line with international model prognostications made available much earlier and reported in these columns, which had suggested that the seasonal weather perturbations would continue unabated into the last week of the month.

Fresh System

In fact, the European Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasting has indicated yet another western disturbance could be expected over the northwest region by Friday (February 25).

The week ending on the same date would also see scattered showers spreading over the southern peninsula and the east coast, according to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction and in consonance with peer model forecasts.

On its part, the IMD bulletin said that a fresh western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from Tuesday onwards and adjoining plains from Wednesday onwards.

Newly assessed weather conditions in the region suggest that minimum temperatures may not dip as predicted earlier and could, in fact, rise by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over the plains of northwest and adjoining central India thereafter.

This would happen as moisture fills the plains and affords some convection throwing up clouds and helping hold up the minimum temperatures.

Weather warnings issued by the IMD said that isolated thunder squalls or hailstorm may break out over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, north Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh on Sunday.

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