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The US Climate Prediction Centre sees a wave of rainfall sneaking past the Gulf of Thailand into the Andaman Sea during October 8 to 14.
This would emerge trailing a typhoon, successor to incumbent Typhoon Phanfone, a weather system of destructive strength racing menacingly towards Japan.
In this manner, busy typhoon season in the northwest Pacific/South China Sea will have rubbed off on the Bay of Bengal as early as by next week, according to the forecast.
‘Low’ in Bay?Earlier, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts had hinted at the possibility of a low-pressure developing over the Andaman Sea by Monday next.
Whether this activity can precipitate the onset of northeast monsoon is something that needs to be waited and watched.
Meanwhile, the residual southwest monsoon precipitated thundershowers over Konkan-Goa during the last 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
The monsoon withdrawal line stayed put along the Ujjain-Vadodara-Porbandar alignment, but is expected to sweep down the east-northeast and parts of the Bay over the next few days.
Trough to growThe withdrawal line is not forecast to reach the peninsula by October 7 by when a trough with a rain-head in front would extend into the Andaman Sea from South China Sea.
The trough would take some time to extend cover the wider Bay in order to precipitate the northeast monsoon for which the onset window opens from October 15.
Meanwhile, the Global Forecast System of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction agrees with the European Centre’s outlook for a low-pressure area in the Andaman Sea between October 8 and 12.
It is shown as heading towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, likely to the north of Chennai, according to this projection.
Showers in SouthMeanwhile, residual southwest monsoon showers continued to lash extreme south.
Kalpana satellite imagery shows thunder clouds standing tall over east and south Bay of Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Comorin, and central and south Arabian Sea.
An upper air cyclonic circulation that is indirectly causing the thundershowers persists over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
The US Climate Prediction Centre suggests that the rains would now be driven by a circulation forming off Sri Lanka.
It assesses that coastal Karnataka, Kerala and adjoining south Tamil Nadu may continue to witness thundershowers until October 13.
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