Close on the heels of a prevailing western disturbance exiting the northern parts of the country, a feeble successor has drifted in from across the border, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Sunday evening.

This was exactly as forecasts made by global models and seconded by the IMD only the previous day.

ANOTHER SYSTEM?

A train of westerlies has rolled in over the past fortnight with the conspicuous ‘steam engine’ up front triggering rising motion of air (lowered pressure), convection, clouding and associated weather.

Sunday’s western disturbance lain over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir and would affect western Himalayan region during next two to three days.

Global forecasts for the next week indicate that yet another western disturbance may head in to northwest India by March 16, signalling no abatement in weather events created by westerly waves from across the border.

Meanwhile, an easterly wave is affecting southern islands of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

EASTERLY WAVE

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction said the wave could likely head once again towards Sri Lanka, mostly skipping India’s southeastern coast.

The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University saw the wave sending concentric waves of rain into Andaman Sea fading into central Bay of Bengal.

The IRI also saw possibility of some rain straying into southeast Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Kerala during the six days ending Thursday.

An IMD update on Sunday afternoon said isolated rain or thundershowers has occurred over east Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

MERCURY TRENDS

Maximum temperatures were below normal by 2 to 4 deg Celsius over some parts of Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana as skies cleared overnight.

But they were above normal by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of east and northeast India, where cloudiness left behind by the previous westerly system trapped outgoing long-wave radiation.

Satellite cloud imagery on Sunday afternoon showed presence of convective clouds over some parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and the Andaman Sea.

MAY SCALE UP

Short-term forecasts said isolated rain or snowfall would occur over Jammu and Kashmir and isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Rain or snowfall over Jammu and Kashmir may scale up from Monday.

Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and isolated over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, extreme south peninsular India and Lakshadweep

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