Westerlies may continue to earn ‘volatile purchase’ in east, south

The cooler northwesterly winds associated with a prevailing western disturbance has earned ‘volatile purchase’ across the eastern two-thirds of the landmass.

The seasonally unstable weather now transcends the Indo-Gangetic plains to break into east-central and the almost parched outback of central India, parts of the eastern seaboard as well as into southern peninsula proper.

This is the handiwork of the typical weather formations that have sprung up at vantage points across this region, thanks to the fluctuating fortunes of a semi-permanent and seasonal trough showing up in the upper levels of northwest and east India.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update this (Monday) morning that fairly widespread rain or snow has occurred over Jammu and Kashmir until the previous day evening. It was scattered over Himachal Pradesh and isolated over Uttarakhand.

But isolated rainfall has been reported from across Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, west Madhya Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, West Bengal, Sikkim, Kerala and Tamil Nadu during this period. Sustaining this unstable weather over disparate areas was mainly the western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood.

The IMD expected this system to continue to affect the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains until Wednesday.

The induced upper air cyclonic circulation has pushed across to the east fast relative to its position on Sunday morning. It has since left the evening perch over north Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh to sit over southwest Bihar and neighbourhood this morning.

This is from here that the weather-maker south-bound trough extended to south Tamil Nadu across Vidarbha and Karnataka.

What is more, this very trough has thrown up an offspring upper air cyclonic circulation over north Karnataka, completing the network of weather formations. A stand-alone cyclonic circulation persisted over Assam and neighbourhood.

A weather warning issued by the IMD said that isolated thunder squalls would occur over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during until tomorrow (Tuesday).

Satellite imagery on early Monday morning revealed the presence of convective clouds over parts of Jammu and Kashmir and southeast Bay of Bengal. Low to medium clouds were seen over parts of rest of the western Himalayan region, east Uttar Pradesh and central, east, northeast and south peninsular India.

A short-term outlook by the IMD suggested fairly widespread rain or snow over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh while it would be scattered over Uttarakhand until the day after (Wednesday).

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. It would be scattered over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and isolated over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa and Vidarbha.

Isolated dust storms or thunderstorms would occur over north Haryana and northwest Uttar Pradesh until tomorrow. Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Kerala and isolated over Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Extended forecast valid until Saturday said that scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and isolated over east and peninsular India. Maximum temperatures on Sunday fell by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over isolated pockets of western Himalayan region and Uttar Pradesh and changed little elsewhere.

They were below normal by 2 to 5 deg Celsius over parts of western Himalayan region and Uttar Pradesh and by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, southwest Madhya Pradesh and Konkan. The highest maximum temperature of 41.1 deg Celsius was recorded at Tirupathi in Andhra Pradesh.

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