A visiting western disturbance triggered incessant rainfall over Kashmir yesterday (Wednesday) even as the northern-most reach of the monsoon languished farther away across Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, linking Porbandar, Baroda, Shivpuri, Rewa and Churk over the past couple of days.

Heavy rain over Delhi, HP, Punjab

An excessive monsoon over East and North-East India and unexpected heavy showers over Jammu & Kashmir and Rajasthan from a western disturbance have cut the rain deficit to nil countrywide by Wednesday evening. Large excess rain was recorded over Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

A helpful monsoon feature in the form of an West-East trough from North-West Rajasthan to North-West Bay of Bengal (proxy for the all-important monsoon trough over the farming heartland) was visible on Thursday morning, while the offshore lay truncated from South Maharashtra to North Kerala. Cyclonic circulations hung over North-West Rajasthan and East Jharkhand, helping amplify the rainfall regionally.

MJO wave to move in from Africa

Meanwhile, global weather models said a rain-boosting Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave will transit from Africa into the Indian Ocean from the month-end into early July and strengthen further as it traverses the Indian Ocean to enter the Maritime Continent (Indonesia et al) for the first time after monsoon onset. It will likely prompt a northward shift in above-average rainfall over South Asia (including India) and South-East Asia during the period.

Rainfall to scale up

The US Climate Prediction Centre sees above-average rainfall for entire Peninsular India and adjoining Central India until July 5. The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe during the next five days; over the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra from Friday to Sunday; over North Interior Karnataka on Friday and Saturday; and East Gujarat on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated very heavy rainfall may lash Konkan and Goa during this period.

To the East, the strong monsoon will continue to cause widespread rainfall over North-East India and the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim, too, during this period. Isolated heavy rainfall will persist over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, and over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya from today (Wednesday) until Monday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over the hills of West Bengal on Saturday and Sunday.

Fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning may continue over Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and the plains of West Bengal until Sunday. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Vidarbha today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday); over Bihar until Sunday; Jharkhand on Friday and Saturday; and over Odisha and Chhattisgarh until Sunday.