India's cotton crop estimate is further reduced by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the season 2018-19. In its January 2019 estimate for India's cotton crop, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) lowered cotton crop estimate for the third time in a row citing water crisis in the growing region. The CAI has reduced the crop estimate for Telangana by 2.50 lakh bales, Andhra Pradesh by 50,000 bales and Karnataka by 2 lakh bales.

"In the Southern Zone of the country, farmers have uprooted their cotton plants due to moisture deficiency as a result of which there is no scope for 3rd and 4th pickings," said Atul Ganatra, President, CAI. The estimated crop size of 330 lakh bales is lowest in a decade.

Following this, India is set to lose its status of 'numero-uno cotton producer' in the world to China. The yields in India have also been lower hurting crop prospects. As against China's yield of over 1,755 kg per hectare, India produces nearly 485-500 kg per hectare. During the first four months of 2018-19 season (October 2018-January 2019), total cotton supply is projected at 198.80 lakh bales, which consists of the arrival of 170.32 lakh bales upto January 31 2019 and imports of 5.48 lakh bales. The opening stock at the beginning of the season is estimated at 23 lakh bales.

CAI has estimated cotton imports at 27 lakh bales, higher by 12 lakh bales as compared to the previous year’s import estimated at 15 lakh bales. Overall, estimated domestic cotton consumption is likely to be 316 lakh bales which is lower by 4 lakh bales as compared to what was estimated during the last month. CAI has estimated exports for the season 2018-19 at 50 lakh bales, which are lower by 19 lakh bales as compared to 69 lakh bales estimated during last year.

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