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Maximum temperatures may have fell by 4-6 deg Celsius over some parts of northwest India on Wednesday but could tend to rise from now.
The case for extreme heating is being discounted due to forecasts of arrival of another western disturbance and its calming influence on weather by midweek next week.
OUTLOOK RETAINED
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has retained the outlook for this western disturbance, which could cap the heating trend.
Sustained heating is required for the ‘heat low' or ‘seasonal low' (lower pressure from ascending motion of air) to form in the northwest.
This is the major land-based feature that helps pull in south-westerly monsoon current into the mainland as they blow in from the adjoining seas.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of thunder squalls reaching 55-65 km/hr searing through the north-western and eastern regions on Thursday.
This is valid for Thursday for Haryana, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh and for another day for over Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of northeast.
HEAVY RAINS
Heavy rainfall is likely at one or two places over Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
The causative upper air cyclonic circulation over Haryana persisted on Wednesday.
Its offspring trough of lower pressure ran down east-southeast to Assam with an embedded cyclonic circulation over north Chhattisgarh.
The parent western disturbance over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir hung on gamely. It would continue to affect western Himalayan region during the next three days.
The cyclonic circulation and trough will combine to trigger rain or thundershowers at many places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.
WET ELSEWHERE
Rain or thundershowers are also likely over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal and at one or two places over Bihar and Jharkhand.
Parts of central India, south peninsular India and Lakshadweep too may come under a wet spell on Thursday.
In the northwest, rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan.
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