The global cashew supply in 2022 will be comfortable and the demand is expected to remain strong with continued emphasis on healthy foods aided by reasonable prices moving in a narrow range. At the same time the challenges of Covid uncertainty and high logistics cost may continue for one more year which could impact prices, Pankaj Sampat, partner of Samson Traders said.

The processing in Africa will continue to increase with the investments made and being made in several countries. Africa already accounts for close to 60 per cent of the world’s cashew production with the largest producer – Ivory Coast contributing 1 million tonnes (close to 25 per cent of world production).

Now, in the last 2-3 years, processing in Africa has increased significantly. This is evident from the 60 per cent increase in Vietnam imports of African kernels plus similarly significant increases in imports by USA & EU, he said.

There was a huge jump in Cambodia raw cashew nut (RCN) export to Vietnam – up by 445 per cent from 2,10,000 tonne to 11,00,000 tonne for January-November 2021. Taking into account possible under reporting in previous years and increase in current year crop, it would be reasonable to estimate import of Cambodia to be 3,50,000 to 4,00,000 tonne of RCN.

Covid restrictions impacted production and movement of products from Vietnam for several months. Production and consumption in India was also impacted for a few weeks, twice or thrice. There was not much impact on supplies from Africa or consumption in the importing countries.

Freight rates

Logistics continued to be a big problem for kernels from Vietnam to the USA and EU. Freight rates have been going up continuously since the second half of 2020 with a big jump at the end of 2021. Current freight is close to $10,000 to EU and over $18,000 to the US. Availability of containers and space on vessels has been tight. Vessel cancellations, roll-overs and congestion in transit ports have resulted in delays in arrival of goods at destination.

Pratab Nair, INC (International Nuts and Dried Fruits) ambassador to India hinted that there is a slight softening of demand in India due to the strengthening of third Covid wave, but the demand is expected to pick up once this wave begins to subside. However, the demand continues to be good across the world on the back of cashews being considered as an immunity boosting food.

On the supply side, he said while West Africa and India are expecting normal crop, Vietnam and Cambodia are anticipating delayed crops due to unseasonal rains. Exports from India were low – probably the lowest in history – with only some niche buyers willing to pay the higher Indian prices. However, India’s import of RCN and consumption of kernels were steady.

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