The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has pointed to the possibility of the first low-pressure area of the North-East monsoon over East-Central Bay of Bengal, away from the Tamil Nadu coast and likely going further away towards the Bangladesh coast over the next two days.

But rainfall may scale up over the South Peninsula from Sunday thanks to a circulation kicking in from off Kanniyakumari. The IMD has forecast scattered rainfall, moderate thunderstorm and lightning with isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu and Kerala for three days.

On Friday, a circulation persisted over the Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining South-West Bay. It is the same system that had poured down on Chennai and parts of North Tamil Nadu as well as parts of South Tamil Nadu from Wednesday night into Thursday.

The IMD expected the system to stay productive and cause isolated to scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorms and lightning over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry until Sunday with isolated heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal till Saturday.

Low-pressure areas

Earlier, private forecaster Skymet Weather  said that an incoming remnant of a typhoon from the South China Sea would cross Vietnam and Thailand and enter the Bay and set up a low-pressure area and re-curve from the Andhra Pradesh coast towards Bangladesh. According to the IMD, the system would cause isolated heavy rainfall with moderate thunderstorm and lightning is likely over South Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura for three days from Saturday.

Cooler sea waters

Meanwhile, large parts of South and Central Bay, which receive incoming circulations from the South China Sea/West Pacific, remained cooler than normal not allowing for ideal conditions to grow these circulations to low-pressure areas and escalate the North-East monsoon.

The only exception is a cyclonic circulation that has been persisting over the North Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh coasts (the coastal waters here warmer than normal), which was responsible for the heavy rainfall over Chennai and neighbourhood on Thursday.

 

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