Conditions are favourable for the onset of monsoon over Kerala over the next two days, the India Met Department announced on Wednesday evening.

This is likely to coincide with the formation of a low-pressure area over the Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood, which will help pull in the monsoon winds towards the coast.

International models had hinted about a helpful environment for the onset evolving in the upper levels of the atmosphere as well.

Likely storm

This will be evidenced in the formation of the ‘low’ over Lakshadweep.

Some of the models are suggesting that the ‘low’ would move north parallel to the coast and intensify into a depression or even a tropical cyclone.

The US Climate Prediction Centre cited model predictions suggesting the formation of the ‘low during the week ending June 9 and its development into a storm in the Arabian Sea.

If this were to be the case, the system would take the monsoon all along the coast towards Mumbai-Gujarat by June 10/June 11.

Some other models say that the system will head towards Karachi in Pakistan, helping push some rain into southwest and adjoining west Rajasthan. A storm forming during the onset of the monsoon and moving over sea means that it would use up available moisture and waste a better part of it as rain over the waters.

Not ideal

It would take sometime for the monsoon to recoup its energy and rustle up enough moisture to make the next big move towards inland.

The monsoon does better with a conventional ‘low’ that moves slowly along the West Coast, ensuring that the rains reach out into adjoining peninsular interior.

Rains for East

The scene is likely to shift to Bay eastern where a likely ‘low’ is predicted to move towards Myanmar-Bangladesh and dump rain there.

Parts of north-eastern India and Gangetic West Bengal also stand to benefit. But mainland India will have to sit out.

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