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A cyclonic circulation has expectedly sprung up over east-central and adjoining north-east Bay of Bengal, as the wait for the monsoon continued over the mainland.
Behaviour of the circulation bears watching for likely implications for the monsoon. But the location does not exactly give it room for much intensification.
ARABIAN SEA
Global weather models are of the view that action would shift instead to the Arabian Sea.
A developing weather system here and an incoming westerly trough into north-west India might interact to swing the monsoon current towards the west coast.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projections showed the existing low-pressure area in the south-west Arabian Sea tracking a course towards central Arabian Sea.
That it is not headed towards the opposite direction (Oman) as witnessed on a few occasions in the past is itself reassuring from the monsoon point of view.
The IMD expects the system to develop as a depression and move towards the Gujarat coast by next week.
WEST COAST RAIN
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a dipping westerly trough into northeast Arabian Sea guiding this system towards coast.
The IMD expected to see an increase in rainfall activity along the west coast from Friday.
This should likely lead to the onset of the monsoon.
Meanwhile, the northern limit of monsoon remained pinned down to near the Colombo latitude for the third day on Wednesday.
IMD expected conditions to become favourable for advance of monsoon into parts of south-east Arabian Sea (off Kerala coast) during the next two days.
More parts of the Maldives and the Comorin area, south and central Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of north Andaman Sea would also get covered during this phase.
Elsewhere on Wednesday, upper air cyclonic circulations hung over Orissa and south Assam also.
Satellite pictures showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of the Andaman Sea; and north, central and southeast Bay of Bengal.
Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers would break out at a few places over Kerala and Lakshadweep.
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