Extremely good rainfall received during the monsoon period and subsequent months will help the country to harvest a record 110 million tonnes (mt) or more of wheat, according to projections by two different private agencies.

While the firms —private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services and National Collateral Management Services Ltd (NCML) – projected that wheat output would be much higher than the 102.19 mt projected for 2018-19 in the 4th advance estimates, their assessments differed on two major rabi crops—Bengal gram and mustard. While Skymet said the output of both the commodities would higher than that in the last year, NCML’s projections were contrary to it.

Rabi crops account for nearly 50 per cent of India's total foodgrain production.

Initial projections

According to the first rabi projections released by Skymet on Tuesday, gram production would be 10.66 mt as against previous year's 10.13 mt, but NCML, which is a post-harvest management firm, saw the output falling to 9.58 mt. Similarly, Skymet estimated the output of mustard and rapeseed to be 9.46 mt, marginally higher than 9.34 mt last year, but NCML projected it to be 8.58 mt.

 

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“Good rain recorded during monsoon and the post-monsoon season has helped reservoirs to fill. This has boosted sowing of the rabi crop, which is clearly indicated by the sowing numbers so far. Availability of good soil moisture across major producing States has also laid the foundation for better crop productivity,” Skymet said its report.

It also said that changes in temperatures in coming months can affect the grain yield, particularly for crops like wheat. Skymet issued production estimates only for wheat, gram and mustard.

NCML said production of wheat is expected to increase due to multiple factors. Firstly, higher acreage is reported during the current year due to increase in minimum support price (MSP). Farmers prefer wheat over other rabi crops in irrigated areas because of assured return as procurement is done at MSP rates.

Secondly, prolonged cold waves and winter rainfall in States that are key contributors to wheat production have improved the yield. Along with wheat, production of rabi paddy is estimated to increase by 5 per cent over the previous year’s yield, it said.

Maize output

NCML also projected 8.25 per cent increase in the production of maize to 8.92 mt and jowar by a spectacular 35 per cent to 3.12 mt as compared to actual production in 2018-19. The higher jowar output is mainly because of higher acreages in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, the three States were jowar is primarily grown.

Overall cereal production during rabi would go up by 7 per cent as compared to last corresponding season, NCML projected. On the other hand, it estimated a 8.8 per cent and 2 per cent slide in oilseeds and pulses production during the current season.

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