The Government of India’s top cotton crop assessment body has projected cotton consumption to dip by a little more than 8 per cent owing to the latest Covid-19 wave and the subsequent lockdowns in several States.

The Union Ministry of Textiles’ Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) has reduced cotton consumption for season 2020-21 (October to September period) from 330 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) to 303 lakh bales, primarily due to the current lockdowns as the severe second wave of Covid has gripped the entire nation.

Cotton sector divided over prospects of higher acreage

In the COCPC meeting held on April 30, the estimated cotton closing stock has been increased from the earlier projected 98.79 lakh bales to 118.79 lakh bales at the end of the season on September 30, 2021.

Exports likely to take a hit

The COCPC, which was formed in September 2020 replacing the erstwhile Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), has also curtailed the projected cotton output for the season from the earlier estimated 371 lakh bales to 360 lakh bales.

While cotton imports are estimated to remain stable at 11 lakh bales for the year, exports are likely to take a hit from earlier projections of 75 lakh bales to 70 lakh bales.

 

“Indian cotton sowing area has been increased from 133.73 lakh hectares to 134.77 lakh hectares. The big change was in Punjab, where sowing was reduced from 3.92 lakh hectares to 2.48 lakh hectares, whereas in Karnataka it increased from 6.37 lakh hectares to 8.17 lakh hectares,” COCPC noted.

Higher global offtake to boost India’s cotton shipments

For the year 2020-21, which started from October 1, 2020, with estimated opening stock of 120.79 lakh bales, the total cotton supply is projected to be 491.79 lakh bales, which includes 360 lakh bales of crop as per the latest estimates and 11 lakh bales of imports besides the opening stock.

Total demand is projected at 373 lakh bales, including 303 lakh bales of domestic consumption and 70 lakh bales of cotton exports.

Notably, cotton trade body, Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated India's cotton output for the year at the same level as of COCPC i.e. 360 lakh bales. However, it has projected total consumption of 330 lakh bales during the year, leaving the closing stock of 106 lakh bales.

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