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The deep depression over West-Central Bay of Bengal intensified into cyclone ‘Jawad’ on Friday afternoon and lay centred about 360 km South-South-East of Vishakhapatnam; and 470 km South-South-East of Gopalpur, 530 km South-South-West of Puri and 600 km South-South-West of Paradip (all Odisha).
It is likely to intensify as a severe cyclone and sprint within reach of the North Andhra Pradesh–South Odisha coasts by Saturday morning in what is a sustained North-North-East track, grazing the entire Odisha and West Bengal coasts enforced by a western disturbance dipping in travelling from North-West and Central India. In this manner, ‘Jawad’ may not be allowed to travel deep into the interior of the two States.
Severe cyclone to weaken
Numerical model projections by the IMD suggests that ‘Jawad’ may reach peak wind speeds of 90-100 km/hr gusting to 110 km/hr as a severe cyclone by Friday night but weaken into a conventional cyclone on Saturday morning after being made to drag itself close along the coast. It will sustain as a cyclone into Saturday midnight before likely heading for an eventual landfall and dissipation along the West Bengal coast.
The IMD does not indicate a time and place for landfall in its bulletin on Friday evening but has issued a warning of potential damage from the storm to the Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Vishakhapatnam districts of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Nayagarh, Khurda, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapara districts of Odisha.
Off-shore operations
Offshore and along-shore operations along the North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coasts had been advised to be judiciously regulated on Friday and suspended on both Saturday and Sunday till such time ‘Jawad’ passes. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into West-Central and North-West Bay of Bengal and along and off the North Andhra Pradesh-Odisha-West Bengal coasts until Sunday.
Rain outlook for Saturday said light to moderate rainfall is likely at most places over South Coastal Odisha with heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy falls at isolated places and heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, North Coastal Odisha and adjoining interior districts and also over the coastal districts of the plains of West Bengal.
Rainfall outlook
The forecast for Sunday suggests light to moderate rainfall at many places over the plains of West Bengal and North Odisha with heavy to very heavy rainfall. It will be heavy at isolated places over Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura. As for Monday, light to moderate rainfall is likely at many places over Assam, Meghalaya and Mizoram and Tripura with heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places.
Post-monsoon cyclones of October and November in the Bay have had disastrous implications for the not just the entire East Coast of India but also for the coasts of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar, according to meteorologists. Available data suggests that severe cyclones over the Bay have grown in their numbers during over the past few decades, especially during the month of November.
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