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The current spell of heavy to very heavy rainfall and extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha and Chhattisgarh are expected to relent from Tuesday as the causative rare deep depression that sprung up over the Bay of Bengal and moved inland has wound down in strength and intensity to become a depression.
A predecessor low-pressure area that travelled all the way from the Bay and setting over South Gujarat flooded many parts of the State including Saurashtra.
More rain for North-West
It, too, may weaken, but the heavy to very heavy rains may continue over Gujarat until Thursday and over Madhya Pradesh until Wednesday.
Later, the rain clouds may move into the North-West extending the monsoon in the region beyond its usual September timeline, with a fresh spell of heavy rainfall set to unfold over Haryana, Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh from Thursday into the weekend.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an evening update on Monday that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over north Konkan, north Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat, east Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh during the next 3-4 days.
The flooding rains over the eastern and western parts of the country has already cut down the rain deficit to six per cent as on Monday (from a peak of nine per cent at the end of an unusually drier August).
More rains are indicated as the depression travels over Central India, West India and Northwest over next few days.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfalls are likely over Gujarat and West Madhya Pradesh on Wednesday.
Scattered rainfall may continue over peninsular India for five days while it will be isolated heavy over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala until Wednesday.
MJO becomes active
Earlier, the monsoon had conjured up a rare deep depression (second only in strength and intensity to a cyclone) over the Bay and in the process unleashing a punishing rain spell over East and Central India even as a predecessor low-pressure area was active over South Gujarat.
The monsoon cause was amply helped by a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that suddenly emerged out of its stupor and intensified rapidly over the Indian Ocean to a level not seen so far during the Asian/Indian monsoon season, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre.
Adding to the virulence of the monsoon is the enhanced typhoon (cyclone) activity over the West Pacific (including the South China Sea) which is currently hosting typhoon Chanthu (impacting the East China coast) and tropical storm (depression) Conson to the East of the Philippines.
Conson may move into Vietnam and bring heavy rainfall in the next two days. West-moving tropical storms or typhoons over the West Pacific/South China Sea are known to send in active remnants across Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar into the Bay of Bengal where they re-develop as low-pressure areas.
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