Depression alert off TN as N-E monsoon looks set to bounce back

Weather models indicate that the North-East monsoon may revive with a bang in the first week of December, the season’s last month, with back-to-back ‘strikes’ on the East Coast.

Two storms are forecast to approach the coast, with the first already having been initiated as a low-pressure area off Sumatra in the South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. The India Met Department (IMD) has already issued an alert saying that the ‘low’ would strengthen into a depression over the next two days.

It could strengthen further into a deep depression, or even a minimal cyclone, and head for the southern coast of Tamil Nadu with the landfall likely taking place on Friday (December 2).

It should continue to move along a westerly path, over the rest of Tamil Nadu and adjoining Karnataka, and step out into the Arabian Sea off Coastal Karnataka by Sunday, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

The IMD too appears to maintain the same track for this system as it gallops across the South-West Bay of Bengal before hitting the southern coast of Tamil Nadu.

It should be able to bring rain to practically the whole of Tamil Nadu, parts of adjoining Karnataka and Kerala even as it weakens rapidly in strength. It may later regenerate in the Arabian Sea off Karnataka.

The IMD has, meanwhile, issued a warning to fishermen to be cautious while venturing out of the Tamil Nadu coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Heavy rain has been forecast for Tamil Nadu and Kerala on Thursday. As for Friday, the heavy rainfall warning is valid for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, another low-pressure area is likely to form over the extreme South-East Bay of Bengal by Sunday, as an extension of a rain wave coming in from the South China Sea.

It would have the entire Bay basin at its disposal to move around and gather strength over the next four days, said an outlook by the European Centre.

By December 8, the system would have attained storm strength, and is projected to posture menacingly off the Andhra Pradesh coast, as per its early projections.

But the IMD takes it more to the southerly track, around the south Andhra Pradesh coast and adjoining Chennai, around the same time line.

It remains to be seen to what extent the two systems, likely short-lived given the strength and speed of movement, will help the cause of the rain-starved South Peninsula.

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