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The India Met Department (IMD) has issued a notification to watch for a monsoon depression forming in the Bay of Bengal from a remnant of the erstwhile Pacific super typhoon Mangkhut, over the next few days.
A preparatory cyclonic circulation sent in from the West Pacific lies over the Central and adjoining North Bay in anticipation. It is expected to concentrate into a low-pressure area by Tuesday.
This ‘low’ is likely to further into a depression and move in a typical west-north-west track towards the North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coasts towards the end of the week.
As a result, adverse sea conditions may develop over the South and Central Bay and the Andaman Sea until Wednesday; along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast from Tuesday to Thursday; and along the Odisha-West Bengal coasts from Wednesday to Friday.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea on these days. The IMD expects the depression, after crossing the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast, to continue to move in west-north-west over land.
It would bring Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh under its footprint and drive enhanced rain into Central and adjoining Peninsular India and the northern plains from Friday.
These rains should last until next Tuesday (September 25), throwing to the winds the schedule of the withdrawal of the South-West monsoon from North-West India.
Heavy rain for North-West
Meanwhile, an outlook from the US National Weather Services agency says the depression would erupt in intensely heavy precipitation over North-West India: South Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, East and North Gujarat, Delhi and West UP.
This is likely to pan out over the next 12 to 15 days. Rains might last into early October over North India, East India and adjoining Central India as was the case during earlier years also.
An IMD outlook for September 22 to 24 sees widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls for Central and adjoining Peninsular India.
It would be scattered to fairly widespread over East and North-East India, the plains of North India and the Western Himalayas. The US agency saw a rain ‘pulse’ crossing Gujarat into the adjoining North-East Arabian Sea towards the end of the month.
It could bring rains into Saurashtra & Kutch, parts of South Gujarat, and adjoining North Konkan, including Mumbai.
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