Depression likely in Bay, may cross Puducherry by Friday

Monday’s low-pressure area over the south-east Bay of Bengal intensified on Tuesday, and was set to gain strength during the night to grow into a depression.

The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre located the system to 1,148 km south-east of Chennai on Tuesday evening.

The India Met Department (IMD) pointed to global model consensus over the event and a movement of the depression in a west-northwest direction.

The area of landfall has now been shifted to the north Tamil Nadu coast by Friday (December 2), much earlier than was initially forecast by some of the global agencies.

The likely point of crossing would be around Puducherry, according to the IMD’s initial outlook.

Meanwhile, prospects of its growth beyond a depression are being discounted since the environment is becoming increasingly inhospitable in the south-west Bay (closer to the Tamil Nadu coast).

Sea-surface temperatures are comparatively lower here even as the would-be depression is forecast to run into opposing winds as it approaches landfall.

The IMD has maintained its alert along the Tamil Nadu coast warning fishermen who venture out into the seas during the next two days.

Heavy rainfall has been forecast at isolated places in Tamil Nadu for Wednesday. The next day, the same weather is likely to extend to south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Kerala. On Saturday, heavy rain has been forecast for isolated places over Kerala.

Meanwhile, both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction have stuck to the outlook for a stronger weather system approaching south coastal Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining Chennai coast later next week.

But the IMD seems to differ here and figures that the system would be located out into West-Central Bay of Bengal (the nearest coast being Andhra Pradesh) by December 9. This is apparently the time line by when the international agencies cited earlier expect the system to park itself very close to the Chennai/South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coast.

Visibility has been reduced variously at a number of places in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the rest of East and North-East India as a feeble western disturbance called in over Jammu & Kashmir on Tuesday.

Temperatures have dipped to below-normal at some places over North and North-West India, with the lowest minimum of 6.5 deg Celsius being recorded at Narnaul in Haryana.

The low temperatures have also led to the incidence of ground frost over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining Himachal Pradesh, the IMD update observed.

Absence of a western disturbance and the warmth that it brings could lead to spread of groundfrost to the plains of North-West India.

This is not a good augury for standing rabi crops.

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