‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO

India’s maize (corn), soyabean and rice production could be affected by the likely El Nino weather event, which can cause severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said. “After experiencing three consecutive years of La Niña that brought bumper crops for some and crop failures for others, we are likely heading right into an El Niño,” said FAO’s Agriculture and Market Information System (AMIS) in its latest Market Monitor. 

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More impact on maize

AMIS said the impact of the “potential” El Nino is uncertain as no two events are the same with regards to strength, duration, or localised mitigations. “However, based on historical data, some crops and regions can be highlighted as being likely to have yield impacts,” it said.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are estimated to affect crop yields on over 25 per cent of global croplands, AMIS Market Monitor said. 

In general, they tend to slightly improve global-mean soyabean yields, while decreasing global-mean maize, rice, and wheat yields. “Maize tends to be impacted more than the other crops. Also, negative impacts tend to be lessened for irrigated crops compared with those that are rainfed,” it said.

Maize and soyabean productivity will likely be affected in India, north China plain, southern Mexico, north-east Brazil, Indonesia, West Africa and southern Africa. 

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Impact may be offset

The weather event, which on an average occurs every 2-7 years usually lasting 9-12 months, is likely to impact rice production across all of South-East Asia, including India. 

El Nino, which according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US has a 60 per cent chance of setting in during May-July and increasing to 70 per cent during June-August, may drag wheat production in south-east Australia. 

While El Niño can significantly lower crop yields in some regions, there is a chance that any potential negative impact might be offset at global level, AMIS said in its Market Monitor. “Thus, reductions in yields in one region might be balanced by increases in another. Over the next couple of months, AMIS will keep a close watch on El Niño and its possible impact on global agriculture,” it said.

Positives

On the positive side, maize and soyabean production will likely gain in Midwest US and southeast South America. Wheat yields may rise in the US southern Great Plains, China, Central Asia and southeast South America, the FAO arm said.

The alert comes on the heels of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), a body backed by FAO’s weather arm World Meteorological Organization (WMO), saying the south-west monsoon could witness normal to below normal rainfall over most parts of South Asia. However, at this stage there is no indication of the strength or duration of El Niño, the WMO said.

The WMO said the likelihood of an El Niño developing later this year is increasing. “This would have the opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world to the long-running La Niña and would likely fuel higher global temperatures,” it said.

Will it be strong?

Quoting the CPC, the WMO said probabilities for the development of El Nino later during the year are 80 per cent or more. “There are a lot of signs suggesting that El Niño might be just around the corner,” it said.

Though the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, it will likely not stay that way for long, the WMO said. “There are indications that this year’s (El Nino) event might turn out to be a strong one,” it said, basing on updates based on input from its Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and expert assessment.

If El Niño materialises, and depending on its strength, average to above-average rains could occur in several parts of the world while other areas might experience drier-than-average conditions, it said.

“This will make a lot of farmers happy who have been suffering these past years (due to La Nino) while shifting the agony elsewhere,” AMIS market monitor said. 

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the cooling La Nina over the past three years had put a “temporary” brake on global temperature increase. But El Nino will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records.

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