Amid a forecast of a moderate El Nino lowering monsoon rainfall in India this year, the Agriculture Ministry has set a target of 44 million tonnes (mt) of oilseeds, which is slightly lower than its aim of producing 47.36 mt under the National Mission on Edible Oils – oilseeds.

However, considering the progress made in sowing areas under different cash crops since 2015, when El Nino last struck in the country, the kharif acreage may not see any significant drop even if the rainfall is deficient, experts said.

Separate entities

“One is acreage and another is production and both are to be considered separately. As major sowing operation normally gets over in first two months, the distribution of rainfall during that period is the key factor. Even in rainfed areas, no farmer keeps the land unsown except when there is complete dryness,” said a senior government official.

Citing the paddy acreage during the last kharif season when many districts in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar experienced deficient rainfall, he said acreage was not affected as much as the yield. He also said in 2015, the soybean acreage was 116.05 lakh hectares (lh), which has increased to 120.37 lh in 2022. The production, during the same time, has jumped from 8.57 mt to 13.98 mt.

The monsoon rainfall in the first month of 2015 was 115.6 per cent of the average and it ended the season with 86.2 per cent of normal as there was deficient precipitation during the subsequent three months. Besides, out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, there was normal/excess rainfall in 19 units (covering 61 per cent of the area of the country) and only 17 subdivisions (39 per cent of area) reported deficient rainfall. Even foodgrains output in 2015-16 was only 0.5 mt lower than the previous year.

Coverage counts

“The government may have estimated some crops output conservatively, but it is premature to speculate since acreage is one of several factors in production,” said a former agriculture commissioner. He suggested that available seeds of alternative crops be kept ready so that if a particular region needs them due to delayed or deficient rainfall, farmers can make use.

India’s maize (corn), soyabean and rice production could be affected by the likely El Nino weather event, which can cause severe droughts over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has said.

“After experiencing three consecutive years of La Niña that brought bumper crops for some and crop failures for others, we are likely heading right into an El Niño,” said FAO’s Agriculture and Market Information System (AMIS).

AMIS said the impact of the “potential” El Nino is uncertain as no two events are the same with regards to strength, duration or localised mitigations. “However, based on historical data, some crops and regions can be highlighted as being likely to have yield impacts,” it said.

The current prediction is for a “moderate” El Nino in 2023 whereas it was “strong” in 2015.

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