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The landscape has returned another rainy week that saw surplus showers during the pre-monsoon season (March 1 onwards) thus far at 96 per cent.
The thundershowers were so widely spread that only one (Odisha) of the 36 meteorological subdivisions finds itself in the rain-deficit category. Elsewhere, the rain has been excess or normal.
Soil moisture A leading US-based private weather forecaster has said that the rainfall excess should hold the drought-prone west and north-west India and parts of peninsula in good stead. The moisture conserved would help with the sowing process ahead of the South-West monsoon, which India Met Department has forecast to be below normal this time round.
Favourable moisture for much of the country should aid grain/oilseed development, according to this forecaster.
Main forecast drivers are the warming trend of the Indian Ocean (Indian Ocean Dipole status) and weak to moderate El Nino in east and equatorial Pacific. A third of the area for cotton, sugarcane and groundnuts towards the south of the country may be faced with dryness concerns, the agency suspected.
Highest surplus The main risk emanates from a slower monsoon onset over these regions and more expansive dryness into groundnut area in the North-West, were El Nino to become stronger.
Meanwhile, the highest surplus recorded during the period (March 1 to April 22) has been at Konkan and Goa (+2227 per cent above normal); the next highest was in east Rajasthan (+1160 per cent). Rest of the highs recorded ranged from +100- to +987 per cent; as a matter of fact, north-west India and central India which are expected to witness drier monsoon later this year, have recorded surpluses.
These included +123 per cent in Jammu and Kashmir; +57 per cent in Himachal Pradesh; +175 per cent in Punjab; +464 per cent in Haryana; +112 per cent in Uttarakhand; +466 per cent each in Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh; +724 per cent in west Rajasthan; and+384 per cent in east Uttar Pradesh.
It was +152 per cent in Bihar; +461 per cent in Saurashtra-Kutch; +955 per cent in Gujarat state;+987 per cent in west Madhya Pradesh; and +487 per cent in east Madhya Pradesh.
Less satisfactory Significant surpluses have also been recorded in north peninsular India.
Odisha disappointed with -23 per cent; coastal Andhra Pradesh is marginally better with -7 per cent.
In the North-East also, the rain has been less than satisfactory with Arunachal Pradesh at -12 per cent and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-
Tripura belt logging in at -18 per cent.
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