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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of erstwhile South-West monsoon from most parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal; some more parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Odisha; and some parts of North-East by Wednesday (tomorrow).
The withdrawal process seems to have acquired some urgency with the advancing sweep set to cover more parts of Central India in time to sync with the increasing buzz over the Bay of Bengal, likely heralding the onset of the monsoon in reverse (North-East monsoon) that coincides with the exit of the predecessor from land.
‘Low’ may form by tomorrow
The Bay is already waiting, having spun up cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea much earlier in advance, which will progressively set up a helpful low-pressure area over the East-Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Andaman Sea by tomorrow (Wednesday).
It is likely to move west-northwestwards and reach the South Odisha-North Andhra Pradesh coasts as a well-marked low-pressure area by Friday. It will bring light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated thunderstorms (wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) and heavy to very heavy falls over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands during the next four days.
Counterpart in Arabian Sea
A cyclonic circulation too has persisted over the East-Central Arabian Sea for the past many days and may hang in there for two more days even while being linked with the counterpart in the Bay by means of a weather-generating trough.
A combination of these features will bring isolated to scattered rainfall with thunderstorm and lightning over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Heavy rain for South India
Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall is forecast over South India until Sunday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala, Mahe and Tamil Nadu and isolated heavy over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka until Saturday.
An extended outlook from Sunday to Tuesday next (October 17-19) said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over the Islands, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Scattered to fairly widespread light/moderate rainfall is forecast over North-East India, East, Central and North-West Peninsular India. Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall is likely over the plains of North-West India and Uttarakhand.
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