Agri Business

Extended wet spell forecast for East, Peninsular and South India

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on October 05, 2021

The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal continue to be active even as predecessor South-West Monsoon is preparing to exit parts of North-West India over next two days.

Severe cyclone 'Shaheen' barrels into Oman coast

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is forecast to continue over the Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep Islands, Peninsular and North-East India and along the West Coast while being isolated to scattered over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, Sikkim, and Gujarat even as the South-West monsoon prepared to exit from parts of North-West India over the next two days.

Unusual weather patterns in early October are becoming entrenched as a low-pressure area extended stay over East India (East Bihar and adjoining hills of West Bengal and Sikkim) and potent cyclonic circulations hover over South-West Bay of Bengal and South-East Arabian Sea.

Fresh 'low' in Arabian Sea

India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the circulation over the South-East Arabian Sea to concentrate into yet another low-pressure area over East-Central and adjoining North-East Arabian Sea (away from the West Coast) by tomorrow (Tuesday), guided by prevailing easterly winds.

The 'low' over East Bihar is forecast to move away East-North-East and weaken by Tuesday. Notably, a productive north-south trough runs from this 'low' to North Interior Odisha. It will bring isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, West Assam and Meghalaya and isolated heavy over East Uttar Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh till Tuesday.

Active troughs weigh in

Similarly, a trough in easterlies runs from the cyclonic circulation over South-West Bay to the East-Central Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast across the cyclonic circulation over South-East Arabian Sea off Kerala. This trough will stay active during the next two to three days, the IMD said.

This will bring isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Coastal and South Interior Karnataka until Wednesday. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over South Konkan and Goa too during this period and over South Madhya Maharashtra from Monday to Friday.

Severe cyclone 'Shaheen'

Meanwhile, severe cyclone 'Shaheen' over the Gulf of Oman did not weaken in strength and crossed the Oman coast during early Monday morning (00.30-01.30 hrs IST) about 120 km West-North-West of Muscat with maximum sustained wind speeds of 95-105 km/hr gusting to 115 kmph.

According to the IMD, the severe cyclone has weakened into a cyclone over land by 5.30 am IST over North Oman and adjoining United Arab Emirates about 160 km nearly West of Muscat. It may weaken into a deep depression by noon and further into a depression by the evening.

Creates weather history

The state news agency of Oman said that 'Shaheen' made weather history as it came onshore between Al Masnaah and Al-Suwaiq to the West-North-West of Muscat. At least three deaths have been attributed to Shaheen, as activity came to a standstill across Oman as a two-day national holiday was decreed for Sunday and Monday with the approach of 'Shaheen.'

The landfall coordinates kept the strongest winds away from the largest cities of North Oman, as it propelled towards the South-West sooner than predicted, reducing its time over the warm waters of the Gulf of Oman and avoiding further intensification and, in turn, stronger winds.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center used the name 'Shaheen-Gulab' for the cyclone, alluding to its origins farther East in the Bay of Bengal a week ago as cyclone 'Gulab.' A remnant of 'Gulab' had built traction again in the Arabian Sea on Thursday and was renamed 'Shaheen' by the IMD.

Published on October 04, 2021

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