A resurgent monsoon over the South Peninsula has set up a rain spell in Kerala normally identified with monsoon onset conditions in June, walloping the districts of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam and Thrissur covering the southern and central parts of the State overnight into this (Wednesday) morning.

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Satellite pictures showed moisture-laden clouds still waiting to hit the stretch the coast from Kollam to Thiruvananthapuram as also Kochi to the north, even as heavier clouds were seen approaching the rest of the West Coast to the North, with the most potent ones located over the sea at a short distance from the Mumbai-Ratnagiri stretch and Panaji.

Rain in Kerala

The Thiruvananthpuram centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the city received 9.8 cm of rain till 8.30 am on Wednesday, while the Thiruvananthapuram International Airport recorded a much heavier 14.4 cm and suburban Vellayani, 10.3 cm. The satellite town of Neyyatinkara saw 5.1 cm of rainfall during the same period.

The IMD had also warned of water logging on major roads leading to traffic congestions in Thiruvananthpuram; water logging/flooding in many parts of the low-lying area and river banks; uprooting of trees causing damage to power infrastructure; and partial damages to kutcha houses and huts, showing the monsoon can rain it down even without strong weather systems.

What it can claim to have instead is a rudimentary cyclonic circulation (from an erstwhile low-pressure area); a deformed offshore trough; and a helpful zone of turbulence in the higher levels. The circulation is forecast to wash over the West Coast, drift eastward, and set up what looks like an intensified form of low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal by Sunday.

More rain for Gujarat, Mumbai

Expected to show up off the Andhra Pradesh coast, the ‘low’ would steer itself back into North Peninsular India, East and East Central India and drive towards North-West towards West Madhya Pradesh and South Rajasthan. In the process, it would likely confront the approaching withdrawal line of the monsoon and briefly stop it on its tracks over North-West India.

This phase also bristles with the prospect of another spell of heavy to very heavy rain being triggered over West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Mumbai, some of which have already witnessed flooding rains during the recent past. The all-India rainfall for the season, so far, reads at a surplus of seven per cent, down only three per cent from end-August levels.

The IMD national forecast for the next 4-5 days speaks about the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning very likely over West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala on Thursday and Friday.

To escalate rainfall

The impending ‘low’ off the Andhra Pradesh coast may cause the rainfall activity to escalate over Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Vidarbha from Saturday. Isolated heavy falls are also likely over these areas during the same period. Thunderstorms and lightning have been forecast over the rest of East, North-East and Central India.

Forecast for today (Wednesday) indicated heavy rain for the hills of West Bengal, Sikkim, Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan, Goa, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

Strong winds may prevail over Kerala-Karnataka coasts, Lakshadweep area, Gulf of Mannar and Comorin area. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea in these areas.

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