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A controversy has broken out over the India Meteorology Department (IMD) declaring the onset of the South-West monsoon on Sunday (May 29), with top officials in the Government wondering if the set norms for such a declaration have been followed.
Officials suspect that the IMD had made the declaration since it had committed itself saying the monsoon would set in on May 27. But with the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) playing spoilsport, the monsoon’s progress was stalled last week.
The weather agency’s actions are now under scrutiny at the top level in New Delhi. “IMD is being criticised for forecasting early onset of monsoon. It has embarassed all,” said an official, who did not wish to identify.
‘Hasty announcement’
Private weather forecaster Skymet has joined the issue with the IMD in declaring that monsoon has set in, saying it was done in haste setting aside the criteria “blatantly”.
“Declaring monsoon based on single-day observation amounts to a gross violation of standards, never attempted in the past. Any repute scientific body can ill-afford to bend rules and criteria, just to prove the forecast right. Such a step, if taken knowingly, becomes highly objectionable and if otherwise, amounts to an illusion of knowledge,” it said.
On Sunday, the IMD said the monsoon had set in three days before the scheduled date of June 1. Today, the national weather agency said conditions were favourable for the monsoon to advance further into some parts of the central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu, and some parts of Karnataka and some more parts of south and central Bay of Bengal.
Objective criteria
The onset of monsoon has specified objective criteria comprising rainfall, winds and outgoing long-wave radiations (OLR). If after May 10, 60 per cent of the available 13 stations in Kerala, besides Mangaluru, had reported 2.5 mm or more rainfall for two consecutive days, the onset of monsoon over Kerala can be declared the second day, provided the winds and OLR criteria “remain in concurrence”.
“However, the most important and visible manifestation of rainfall fell short on May 28 and May 30. The onset conditions were fulfilled only for one day, May 29. The day prior (May 28) and a day later (May 30), merely less than 40 per cent of the designated stations met the rainfall criteria,” Skymet said in a statement.
But the monsoon “does not seem to be kicking up soon over Kerala and peninsular India,” the private forecaster said, adding that today seven out of the 14 earmarked stations recorded no rainfall and two more locations registered less than 1 mm rainfall.
“Most locations with a fair amount of sunshine fail to give the monsoon feel. At best, North-East India is well within norms for announcing the south-west monsoon. Most areas of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Rayalaseema will have to wait to catch up with a proper monsoon stream” it said.
IMD forecast
On its part, the IMD maintained that over the next five days widespread light/moderate rainfall with thunderstorm/lightning is likely over Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
The national weather forecaster said squally weather (wind speed 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) is very likely over the south-west Arabian Sea over the next 5 days, over the south-east Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, along and off Kerala coast.
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