Agri Business

Heavy rains over western India to lift; to shift to North

Vinson Kurian | Updated on July 08, 2020 Published on July 08, 2020

Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha can hope to receive their share of monsoon showers.   -  THE HINDU

Break-monsoon-like situation on the cards

The monsoon may be pouring down with a vengeance over western India (Saurashtra, Kutch, Gujarat and North Maharashtra) thanks to a hyperactive low-pressure area whirring in the background, but the rains are about to abate and shift towards the Himalayan foothills, East and North-East India.

This is a classic sign of an emerging break-monsoon-like situation, an inevitable phase when the monsoon takes a deep breath over the Peninsula, Central and West India and confines activity to parts of the West Coast, the Himalayan foothills and adjoining East and North-East India as mentioned above.

This is also the time when parts of the East Coast, especially Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha can hope to receive their share of the monsoon’s spoils with facilitating conditions developing over the Bay of Bengal. As of now, the Arabian Sea and the Bay resemble ghost towns with nil activity.


Rainfall trend till July

Rainfall for the country as a whole from June till date (June to July 7) spanning a month and the first week of the normally rainiest month of July indicates that 73 per cent of the districts have received large excess, excess or normal rain, while 27 per cent of the districts are in deficit. The break-monsoon-like situation may add to the deficit in West, Central and Peninsular India but do the exact opposite in North and East.

The most number of deficit districts are in Uttar Pradesh (27 of 75), followed by Gujarat (14 of 33) and Rajasthan (12 of 33). But the monsoon shifting to the North and towards the foothills of Himalayas sooner than later should help Uttar Pradesh, and to a lesser extent Rajasthan, to redeem the situation.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday morning that the well-marked low hovering over the Gulf of Kutch would continue to bring fairly widespread rainfall over Gujarat before decreasing significantly thereafter. Isolated heavy to very heavy rains are also likely over Saurashtra and Kutch.

Monsoon trough shifting

The monsoon trough that holds the monsoon in place, may start shifting gradually northwards along the foothills of the Himalayas from Thursday. Enhanced convergence of south-westerly/southerly monsoon winds from the Bay already threatens to swamp North-East and East India from today.

The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the North-East, plains of Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh from Wednesday. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Assam and Meghalaya till Saturday; Arunachal Pradesh on Thursday and Friday; plains of Bengal, Sikkim and East Uttar Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday; and over Bihar on Saturday.

This could also worsen the flood situation over East India and North-East India. Additionally, the IMD has identified areas of intense thunderstorm and lightning for the rest of Wednesday across Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, South-East Rajasthan, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand ahead of the incoming fresh wave of rain.

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Published on July 08, 2020
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