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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Tuesday while it will be heavy at isolated places over Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe as the North-East monsoon powers itself into the next phase over the South Peninsula.
Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning is likely at isolated places over the region during the course of the day. Satellite pictures showed a fresh pulse of rain entering the Chennai-Puducherry-Nagapattinam-Tondi belt on Tamil Nadu coast and Nellore to Kakinada on the Andhra Pradesh coast. Thunderstorms also invaded the interior from Tiruchi, Salem, Vellore to Tirupathi and Vijayawada.
Seas to remain active
The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service hinted at the probability of the West Pacific/South China Sea and, to a lesser extent the Bay of Bengal, remaining active with an estimated to 20-40 per cent chance of hosting fresh weather systems after tropical storm Algae spends itself out in the South China Sea and cyclonic circulations form over the Bay basin through mid-November.
Thunderstorms invaded the Tamil Nadu coast on from Chennai to Puducherry to Nagapattinam and Tondi afresh on Tuesday, apart from Coastal Andhra Pradesh. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Mahe.
This prognosis is thought to be sufficient to sustain the ongoing North-East monsoon for as many days. The precipitation outlook for this period is based on a consensus of ensemble model guidance, and the expectation that the atmospheric response to ongoing La Nina conditions will remain the dominant driver of global tropical convective activity despite destructive interference from other features.
Heavy rain forecast
The IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe for next five days; over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on Tuesday and Wednesday; and over South Interior Karnataka on Tuesday.
Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Tuesday.
An extended outlook for three days from the weekend until Tuesday next spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls likely over Tami Nadu and Kerala. To the North of the country, an itinerant western disturbance will trigger scattered to fairly widespread rainfall or snowfall lover the hills and isolated light rainfall over the adjoining plains.
Weather bloggers’ take
On Tuesday, the IMD said thunderstorms had fanned out along with lightning at isolated places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe during the nine hours ending 5.30 pm the previous day.
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