Agri Business

Hesitant monsoon may drift into Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh in 2-3 days

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 17, 2021

Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana have to wait

A hesitant monsoon will now get a move into Gujarat over West India and Uttar Pradesh over North-West India in the next two-three days, while Rajasthan, parts of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi may have wait for a few days more, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update on Thursday.

The northern limit of the monsoon stays stalled across Diu, Surat, Nandurbar, Bhopal, Nowgong, Hamirpur, Barabanki, Bareilly, Saharanpur, Ambala and Amritsar after invading dry north-westerly winds stopped the incoming rain-lade south-easterlies from the East on their tracks two-three days ago.

West Coast blast

But that did not prevent East India, the West Coast and the south Peninsula from being blasted by regionally potent Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal arms across Konkan, Goa, South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Madhya Maharashtra despite blocking of the Bay arm to the East.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred over Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, Kerala, Mahe and Jharkhand while it was heavy over Assam, Meghalaya, Odisha, East Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning.

Some of the stations receiving high rainfall (15 cm or more) are: Gananbawada-28; Mahabaleshwar and Kottigehara-21 each; Avalanche-21; Rajapur and Harnai-20 each; Kolhapur, Agumbe and Canning-18 each; Radhanagari and Chiplun-17; Vaibhavwadi and Chandgarh-16; and Ched, Kankavli and Kudal-15.

Land-based trough straightens out

The land-based trough over North-West India has reverted to being fuller as it ran down on Thursday from West Rajasthan to the North-East Bay of Bengal across North-West Madhya Pradesh, South-East Uttar Pradesh, South Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. It is just a proxy for the crucial monsoon trough.

The south-eastern tip of the trough dipping into the North-East Bay of Bengal is pregnant with the possibility of formation of a low-pressure area. But the instant case, it looks like a few land-based cyclonic circulations may merge into a single one and slide into the Bay next week’ to do the honours.

Offshore trough

Interestingly, the offshore trough along the West Coast, the important atmospheric feature that drives the monsoon over Peninsular India, too, has reverted to being along its normal alignment running down all the way from South Gujarat to the North Kerala coast, revving up the rain activity over the region.

So, over East India, a cyclonic circulation each over the plains of West Bengal and East Uttar Pradesh will preside over the regional weather. Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast respectively over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, North Odisha and East Uttar Pradesh during the next 2-3 days.

The offshore trough will drive widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during next 2-3 days; and over Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe. Isolated extremely heavy falls may lash Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on Friday.

Published on June 17, 2021

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