IMD declares fresh depression alert in Bay of Bengal

The India Met Department (IMD) has declared a fresh alert about the formation of a depression in the Bay of Bengal in the next 24 hours (by Wednesday).

As expected, a preparatory low-pressure area has formed over the South Andaman Sea. This was after a cyclonic circulation crossed in from the Malay Peninsula overnight and dropped anchor there.

This is now expected to intensify another round into a depression. The IMD has already put it under watch for signs of intensification.

The IMD-GFS (Global Forecast System) model takes the storm west-northwest towards Chennai initially, but not quiet reaching the coast.

Instead, it will spin away further north-northwest to Andhra Pradesh and come much closer to the coast, only to caress it and push further north-northeast to Odisha.

It will keep moving north-northeast and erupt in a landfall over Bengal, with the splinters likely spreading out over the North-Eastern states.

Going by this forecast, the Chennai, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and the Bengal coasts would need to factor in the possibility of high winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge later during this week.

Almost all peer global weather models tended to agree with the track of the system, and, except for one, saw its calibrated evolution as a tropical cyclone.

The odd man out here is the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which incidentally was the first among them to take a call on the developing storm.

The European Centre now sees a system of strength no more than that of a depression travelling towards Andhra Pradesh, before pulling away to Odisha and Bengal.

The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction could not concur more with the IMD-GFS and saw a cyclone developing in the Bay on the heels of last week’s ‘Kyant.’

The US Climate Prediction Centre saw most of the excess rain from the system falling on the Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Bengal coasts. The Tamil Nadu coast may get some spill-over rain at most, it says.

In contrast, parts of interior Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala, coastal and south interior Karnataka may manage to get their normal quota of showers during this phase.

Meanwhile, a storm tracker of the US Climate Prediction Centre that the Bay of Bengal may likely witness yet another churn by the middle of the month, likely favouring the Tamil Nadu coast.

This was a view shared by the US National Centre for Environmental Prediction, which saw a rain-head moving towards the Chennai coast during the week from November 9-17.

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