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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared an alert for a depression materialising over the Bay of Bengal, off the Tamil Nadu coast, as a persisting low-pressure area undergoes intensification twice over the next two days.
Numerical model predictions indicate the possibility of the rare system taking what appears to be a pre-meditated swerve to the West-North-West from off the Sri Lankan latitude with which it is currently aligned, and taking aim at the Tamil Nadu coast.
High winds alert
Mrityunjay Mahapatra, Director-General of the IMD, told BusinessLine on Tuesday that the low-pressure area may be a rare occurrence for this time of the year, but was not entirely unexpected.
The IMD has said strong winds (40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) may prevail over the South-West and adjoining South-East Bay, along and off the Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coasts, the Gulf of Mannar and Comorin Area today (Wednesday).
Stronger winds possible
Stronger winds (45-55 km/hr gusting to an almost syclonic 65 km/hr) are warned over the South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal, along and off the Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coasts and the Gulf of Mannar, and squally weather (winds speeding to 45-55 km/hr and gusting to 65 km/hr) over the West-Central and adjoining South-West Bay, along and off the North Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coasts on Friday and Saturday; and strong winds (40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr) over the North Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coasts on Sunday. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.
‘Low’ lies in wait
The IMD said on Wednesday noon that the ‘low’ lay over the central parts of the South Bay and the adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean is expected to become ‘well-marked by Thursday in the first round of intensification. It will acquire further strength by Friday, and become a full-fledged depression by Friday.
As for lateral movement, the IMD said it may take a West-North-West track and move towards the Sri Lanka coast till Thursday and then towards the Tamil Nadu Coast into Friday.
Widespread rain for Tamil Nadu
It will trigger fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorms and lightning over the Tamil Nadu-Puducherry-Karaikal coasts for four days from today (Wednesday) until Sunday, and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall, thunderstorms and lightning over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe from Friday to Sunday.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu-Puducherry-Karaikal from Thursday to Saturday, with extremely heavy rainfall on Friday and isolated heavy rainfall on Sunday. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema on Friday and Saturday.
Scattered to fairly widespread light/ moderate rainfall is forecast over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands on Thursday and Friday, and decrease significantly thereafter.
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