The India Meteorological Department has projected an above normal monsoon for 2016, spelling good news for farmers and policymakers battling two years of consecutive drought.

“Rainfall in the country as a whole for 2016 South West monsoon (June 1 to September 30) is likely to be above normal by 104 per cent to 110 per cent of the long period average," IMD Director General LS Rathore said at a press conference on Tuesday.

The chances of below normal or deficit monsoon is very low, he added.

Last year, the country suffered a rainfall deficit of 14 per cent, while in the previous year the shortfall was 12 per cent. The below normal rains were mainly attributed to El Nino, an irregularly occurring series of climatic changes affecting the equatorial Pacific region, which causes drought conditions in Asia.

Poor monsoons in the last two years hit India’s foodgrain production hard with total output falling to 252.02 million tonnes in 2014-15 crop year (July-June) and an estimated 253.16 million tonne in the ongoing 2015-16 crop year compared to a record 265.04 million tonne in 2013-14 crop year.

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VANDANA BHARTI, ASSOCIATE VICE PRESIDENT, SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD, NEW DELHI

“This year's rainfall is crucial in bringing down prices of some commodities like pulses. Timely and well-spread rainfall can moderate imports of pulses and edible oils. It will also help in maintaining exports of rice, cotton and sugar.”

ASHOK JAIN, PRESIDENT, BOMBAY SUGAR MERCHANTS ASSOCIATION, MUMBAI

“Good rainfall will help farmers in raising the area under sugarcane for 2017/18 crushing season. It will also improve yields of standing crop, but the shortfall will remain in 2016/17 due to last year's drought.”

(with industry reactions from Reuters)

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