IMD predicts above normal rainfall in October

The monsoon season has ended this year with a 106 per cent long period average (LPA) rainfall of 868.6 mm. The Central, Southern and North-western regions received more than 100 per cent precipitation whereas east and north-eastern got nearly 18 per cent deficient showers. With October set to get higher than normal rainfall in most of the States, farmers may have to worry a bit to save the standing crops whenever the downpour could be heavy.

This is the fourth successive year when the country has witnessed a normal or higher than normal monsoon rainfall.

Excess rains in West MP, Chhattisgarh?

Releasing the forecast for next three months and the performance of monsoon during the season, M Mohapatra, Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD), said, “The rainfall average over the country as a whole during October 2022 is most likely to be above normal (>115 per cent of LPA).” According to IMD data, the LPA for October is 75.4 mm.

Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of India except for small pockets of the southern-most region and northern-most part of the country, the IMD DG said. The forecast map shows that soyabean-growing west Madhya Pradesh and paddy-growing Chhattisgarh may experience higher rainfall in October, compared to other States.

Mohapatra also said that the Northeast Monsoon (October to December) rainfall over the south peninsular India consisting of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka is most likely to be normal (between 88 per cent and 112 per cent of LPA of 334.13 mm). “Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of India. But some regions of northwest and northeast India may get below normal rainfall during October-December,” IMD said in a statement.

Early start to rabi sowing

According to the weather bureau, normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except many parts of North-east, East and North-west India in October. This may help farmers to start sowing the rabi crops as soon as they clear the field of kharif harvest as moisture is also normal due to delayed retreat of monsoon from normal September 17.

Meanwhile, as predicted by IMD, the monsoon rain in September was 108 per cent of LPA in the country as a whole while central India received the maximum of 123.1 per cent followed by 113.4 per cent in North-west and 104.3 per cent in the Southern region. Only the East and North-east had rainfall of 86.7 per cent of LPA, but in quantitative value, the precipitation in September was 245.3 mm, even higher than 218.6 mm received by central India.

The country’s 83 per cent of the geographical area had either normal or excess rainfall and only 17 per cent was deficient, said IMD’s DG. He mentioned that the September rains had helped cover a lot of deficit in Uttar Pradesh. The rainfall in June-September was 28 per cent below normal whereas the deficit was as high as 44 per cent until August.

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