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Heavy rainfall is being forecast over parts of the South Peninsular India from today (Friday) to Sunday with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala and Lakshadweep on Saturday and Sunday as a low-pressure area forms in the neighbourhood ahead of the monsoon onset over Kerala.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is of the view that conditions would become ideal for the onset from June 1 while private forecaster Skymet Weather said the onset may be already taking place, bar the shouting. It had said that the rains would reach Kerala as early as May 28.
All but here, says Skymet
“Monsoon is here all but in name. We are awaiting some data,” Jatin Singh, Managing Diretor, Skymet Weather, tweeted yesterday (Thursday). The official @SkymetWeather handle said on Friday morning that “winds are picking up, clouds are thickening, and rains becoming fairly widespread over the ocean and drifting coastward. Looks like we have before-time onset.”
The IMD had yesterday said that in view of formation of a helpful low-pressure area during May 31-June 4, conditions may become favourable for the onset over Kerala around June 1. Meanwhile, a twin low farther away has become well-marked over the West-Central Arabian Sea (to West off Lakshadweep).
Depression over open waters
It would concentrate into a depression by tomorrow (Saturday) and may move towards the South Oman and East Yemen coast. The IMD expects the other low nearer shore to track along the West Coast towards Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat and further into South-East Rajasthan and Delhi bringing showers all the way.
A few global models say the latter could gravitate towards the warm pool (sea-surface temperatures of 31 degrees Celsius) over Lakshadweep, and spin away to become a cyclone almost as powerful as Amphan earlier in the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone may reach the North Arabian Sea equidistant from Oman and South-West Pakistan coasts by June 7.
Heavy rain forecast
Meanwhile, the US Climate Prediction Centre said that Amphan made landfall over West Bengal on May 20 at Category-2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, devastating North-East India and Bangladesh. This single tropical cyclone generated more than double the accumulated cyclone energy observed over the North Indian Ocean basin during the entire Spring season.
The IMD outlook for today and tomorrow is as follows: Friday: Heavy to very heavy rainfall (pre-monsoon) at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka and heavy over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, and Lakshadweep. Strong winds with speed reaching 40-50 km/hr over West-Central, North-East and South-West Arabian Sea (all farther away from Lakshadweep).
Squally around Lakshadweep
Squally weather speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr over South-East and East-Central Arabian Sea (immediate surroundings of Lakshadweep and along the Kerala coast) and North Bay of Bengal. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas. Saturday: Heavy to very heavy rainfall over Kerala and Lakshadweep and heavy over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka.
Strong winds with speed reaching 50-60 km/hr may prevail over the West-Central and South-West Arabian Sea; wind speeds of 40-50 km/hr North-Est Arabian Sea. Squally weather with wind speeds 45-55 km/hr over the South-East and East-Central Arabian Sea. Fishermen should not to venture into these areas.
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