Upgrading this year’s monsoon forecast, India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said country’s rainfed areas are likely to experience above-normal rains this season, while some parts of the highly irrigated North-West region may get below normal rains. This will potentially help the country to harvest another year of bumper foodgrains, easing supply-side pressure on commodities.

“The rainfall during current monsoon season (June-September) is expected to be 103 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus/minus 4 per cent,” IMD’s Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, releasing the updated forecast. In April, the IMD had pegged the seasonal rainfall at 99 per cent of LPA. Rainfall of 87 cm, which is the 50-year average (1971-2020), is considered as LPA for the entire country.

Rainfall of 96 to 104 per cent of LPA over the country as a whole in the four-month monsoon season is considered normal, as per IMD.

Above normal in core areas

The monsoon core zone (mainly rainfed areas), ranging from Gujarat to Odisha, is set to experience rainfall of more than 106 per cent of the LPA, Mohapatra said, adding central India including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat in particular may have a good spread this year.

This is the fourth consecutive year that India is likely to experience a normal monsoon. Earlier, India had witnessed a normal monsoon between 2010 and 2013. India could witness normal monsoons in the near future as the decadal epoch of below normal rains was nearing its end, the IMD DG said.

However, some parts of east-central, east and north-east India and extreme south-west peninsular India are likely to experience below normal monsoon, IMD said.

La Nina to continue

“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the four homogeneous regions is most likely to be above normal for Central India (>106 per cent of LPA) and South Peninsula (>106 per cent of LPA). Rainfall is most likely to be normal over Northeast India (96-106 per cent of LPA) and Northwest India (92-108 per cent of LPA),” IMD said in a statement.

Mohapatra also said the prevailing La Nina conditions, which refer to the cooling of the equatorial Pacific region, were expected to continue till August. La Nina brings more rains to India while El Nino is associated with lower rainfall during monsoon.

However, the possibility of development of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, could lead to below normal rainfall in extreme south-western peninsula that includes Kerala and Tamil Nadu. At present, neutral IOD conditions are prevailing, but many global models have predicted development of negative IOD during the monsoon season.

Asked about the criticism faced by IMD for the “hasty” declaration of monsoon onset over Kerala, Mohapatra said the weather office followed a scientific process to announce the onset and progress. He said 70 per cent of the weather stations in Kerala had reported fairly widespread rainfall and other parameters related to strong westerly winds and cloud formation over the region were fulfilled.

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