Agri Business

Incoming MJO wave to stir up monsoon next week

Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram | Updated on June 30, 2020 Published on June 30, 2020

Above normal rain for first two weeks

The rain-generating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave may be currently weak over West Indian Ocean (to the South of the Arabian Sea), but it could strengthen in the coming week. Even ahead of this, clouds have massed up along the West Coast on Monday, per available satellite pictures.

The MJO is an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the Equator moving across the Indian Ocean periodically. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology cited climate models to indicate that the wave may strengthen near Africa or the West Indian Ocean next week, and then track slowly eastwards.

Good augury for monsoon

This is a good augury for the monsoon during the first two weeks of July, normally the rainiest monsoon month, as June signs off with a creditable show. Across India, cumulative rainfall since June 1 is about 20 per cent above normal, the Australian forecasting agency said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that widespread rainfall may continue along the West Coast during next five days. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Konkan and Goa; isolated heavy over Coastal Karnataka during the next three days and isolated heavy to very heavy thereafter; and heavy falls over Kerala during the next five days.

Extended range model guidance from the IMD indicates that the current week till July 2 would witness above normal rainfall over most of Peninsular India. But below normal rain is signalled for Central and North-West India, and a surplus for East and North-East. But the rainfall distribution and intensity may increase over North-West India after next three days.

Extended range model outlook

Almost a similar forecast is valid for July3-9 though the heavy to very precipitation over East and North-East relents and extends a limb to East-Central India (Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Tamil Nadu). The rest of Tamil Nadu is forecast to witness largely normal rainfall during this period.

The fortnight from July 10 to 23 may bring normal rainfall to North-West India and retain a similar over Peninsular India, though above normal rain is indicated for both Coastal Andhra Pradesh to the eastern side of the peninsula, and Coastal Karnataka-Goa-Konkan stretch on the West Coast.

Central India is projected to fall consistently under a below-normal rainfall regime during this period, which can be explained away by the all-quiet over the Bay of Bengal side. Monsoon as of Tuesday was strong to moderate in the Bay, an update from the Myanmar national forecaster said.

Monsoon trough status

The IMD said that the western end of the crucial monsoon trough over North India has reverted to back to the normal position. But its eastern end continues to languish over land over Imphal. Ideally, it should dip into the Bay of Bengal for firing up the monsoon. This happens once a low-pressure area forms in the Bay, the watch for which has been mounted by the Myanmar forecaster.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Central and adjoining East India during the next three days and increase in intensity and distribution thereafter. Isolated heavy falls may lash Madhya Pradesh during the next three days and isolated heavy to very heavy falls thereafter.

Isolated heavy falls are forecast over Chhattisgarh during the next five days; over Bihar and Vidarbha for four days from Wednesday; and heavy to very heavy over Odisha from Thursday to Saturday.

Published on June 30, 2020
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