After a lull brought about by the Covid pandemic, coffee exports from India are picking pace again. According to a report by Mumbai-based research house Nirmal Bang, India’s soluble coffee exports to Russia rose by a sharp 120 per cent year-on-year (YOY) in October and November 2021, and the same stood at 89 per cent on year-to-date (YTD) basis for the current financial year. This despite the fact that coffee prices registered a sharp rise in the past few months.

In contrast, Brazil’s soluble coffee exports remained tepid. “Soluble coffee realisation in Brazil grew by 21 per cent year on year October 2021 on a favourable base, and we believe that it was on a lower side, considering the price increase in Arabica beans,” the Nirmal Bang report said.

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As for the listed coffee-producing companies in India, exports by CCL Products in the past eight months of the financial year 2022 are up by 21 per cent vis-à-vis Tata Coffee’s exports growth of 31 per cent during the same period. Italy, Russia and Poland contributed to the overall instant coffee exports growth from India.

The ICO composite coffee prices in November 2021 were up by 83 per cent on a YoY basis. Arabica coffee prices were up by 115 per cent YoY, on account of crop damage amid climatic adversities and poor crop projections in Brazil.

“Most coffee-producing countries have seen supply-chain disruptions during Covid-19 and, hence, monthly exports have been volatile. However, India and Vietnam have done relatively well, compared to Brazil, because of the incremental issues like climatic adversities and rising Covid cases during the harvest season in Brazil. As far as soluble coffee is concerned, Indian exports were muted in September 2021 but came back strongly in the subsequent two months,” Nirmal Bang analyst Abhishek Navalgund said in his report.

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The report further says that Vietnam’s overall coffee exports have been soft for the last six months. But the instant coffee segment has relatively outperformed green coffee beans. Coffee prices continued to increase significantly across blends. Arabica saw the highest increase of 99 per cent YOY in October 2021, on account of crop damage amid climatic adversities and poor crop projections in Brazil (19 per cent YOY decline overall but 30 per cent YOY for Arabica). As far as Robusta production is concerned, the USFDA expects 6 per cent growth in output in both Vietnam and Brazil in the current year.

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