Wheat production, as of now, looks to touch at least 112 million tonnes (mt) this year following an increase in the area under the cereal. However, the temperature in March will determine the productivity as any abnormal rise in temperature, like last year, may adversely affect the yield, said Gyanendra Singh, Director of Karnal-based Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (IIWBR).

Until January 5 of the current rabi season, wheat has been sown on 332.16 lakh hectares (lh), up 0.69 per cent from a year ago.

Singh told businessline: “The crop is in very good condition as of now. The area has marginally increased from a year ago and the weather has been favourable. The only thing we expect in the north-west plain is that if there are 1-2 rounds of rain, it will further add to the crop’s growth, though most of the wheat area is irrigated.”

Promising north-west zone

The crop condition in the entire north-west plain zone — Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan – with about 150 lakh hectares area under wheat, nearly half of the country’s total acreage, is very good, he said. Already two rounds of irrigation have been covered in all areas (except very late sown area) whereas a total 4-6 rounds of watering is needed depending on soil condition and rainfall.

He said even in the late sown areas, farmers are expected to harvest 35-40 quintals per hectare depending on the varieties they have planted. “If it is a new and recommended variety, they will definitely get a better harvest,” Singh said. For timely and early sowing, the official recommendation is for DBW 187, a newer variety introduced within the last five years, and DBW 303. There are also two recently released varieties DBW 327 and DBW 332, which are being adopted by farmers.

Pest-free growth

Fortunately so far this year, there is no report of yellow rust from Yamunanagar area of Haryana, where the disease often appears and timely intervention by government agencies check its spread. “Our teams are frequently visiting field and we are monitoring the situation and wheat is almost free from pest,” Singh said. On pink worm in some districts of Punjab, he said it has been controlled and it was a seasonal issue in limited pockets.

On the temperature, he said April does not make a difference. “What is to be observed is the weather from the second week of March. It is very unlikely that the same situation will reappear this year,” he said.

Last month, the Agriculture Ministry said the increase in the area under wheat was assuring in the backdrop of the wheat availability crisis faced globally in view of the Ukraine War and ensuring the country’s own food security. “A record area coverage and the production of wheat is expected this year,” it said in a statement.

Rainfall predicted

The government has targeted a record 112 mt production of wheat this crop year (July-June). The output of the winter-grown cereal dropped to 106.84 mt in 2021-22 from 109.59 mt in 2020-21 due to an unusual heatwave in March-April which lowered yield. But traders and experts pegged the production at not more than 100 mt which is reflected in the open market price of the grain.

According to India Meteorological Department data, the minimum temperature in Haryana was 0.1-2.5°c above normal on January 10 while it was 3-5.6° above normal in Punjab and 0.5° lower than normal in some places of western UP and up to 0.2° above normal in other places of the region. The maximum temperature on Wednesday was below normal in these States.

The weather bureau has predicted scattered to fairly widespread rainfall (including snowfall) over the western Himalayan region and isolated rainfall over adjoining plains during January 11-13. It also has forecast dense to very dense fog and cold day conditions over parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Related Topics
comment COMMENT NOW