India's cotton crop has been revised downward to 348.13 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) as against the previous estimate of 360.13 lakh bales for the 2021-22 season.

Trade body, Cotton Association of India (CAI) in its latest cotton crop outlook for the month of December 2021, has projected lower cotton output in major growing regions of Gujarat, Punjab, Telangana and Karnataka.

As per the CAI projections, cotton output in Gujarat is expected at 91.99 lakh bales, which is 5 lakh bales lesser from the earlier estimates. Cotton production in the States of Telangana and Karnataka is revised downward by two lakh bales each at 43.91 lakh and 23.55 lakh bales respectively.

Also, the cotton output for the States of Punjab, Odisha, Rajasthan and Haryana has been trimmed by 0.5 lakh to 1 lakh bales each.

Notably, CAI has recorded cotton arrivals till December 2021 at 140.52 lakh bales, which is "lower compared to the cotton arrivals of the corresponding months of the previous crop year 2020-21."

Raw cotton (kapas) prices quoted at a record high levels at ₹ 10,000 per quintal at Rajkot market with arrivals of 3,800 quintal on Tuesday. The minimum price was quoted at ₹ 7000 per quintal.

The ginned cotton for 29 mm variety was quoted at ₹ 73,600 a candy (each of 356 kg).

"If we compare the current year’s cotton arrivals with the average cotton arrivals of October to December during the last five years, the current year’s cotton arrivals are higher by 23.11 lakh bales of 170 kgs each compared to the average cotton arrivals of the corresponding months of the last five years," said Atul Ganatra, President, CAI adding that the year of 2020-21 is considered as an exceptional year under Covid-19 impact, hence excluded from the calculation.

The cotton consumption in the country is estimated at 345 lakh bales, higher by 10 lakh bales from earlier estimate of 335 lakh bales. Till December 31, 2021, about 86.25 lakh bales is estimated to have been consumed.

CAI projects cotton exports from India for the year 2021-22 to be around 48 lakh bales without making any changes in the earlier estimates. However, the cotton exports last year were recorded at 78 lakh bales, as Indian cotton was considered cheapest in the world. The export shipments till December 31, 2021, is estimated at 18.50 lakh bales.

Imports to increase

Cotton imports, according to CAI projections, is estimated to increase to 15 lakh bales, higher by 5 lakh bales from earlier estimates of 10 lakh bales. Already 3 lakh bales is estimated to have arrived at the Indian ports by December 31, 2021.

As per the stock position, as stated by CAI, mills are reported to have cotton stock of 65 lakh bales, which is an average 68 days worth of cotton requirements. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, Multi-national corporations (MNCs), Ginners, Traders, MCX, etc. are estimated to have had a total stock of about 48.77 lakh bales as on December 31, 2021, the CAI noted.

Thus, the total stock held by spinning mills and stockists including the stock of cotton sold but not delivered on December 31, 2021 is estimated at 113.77 lakh bales.

The closing stock, for the season 2021-22 is estimated at 45.13 lakh bales.

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