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Japanese researchers have said that monsoon rainfall for India during July could return slight to moderate deficiencies over parts of northwest and central regions and adjoining northern peninsula.
This would be preceded by a moderately successful June, with normal-to-slightly normal rainfall pattern being forecast for the west coast, northern Bihar and adjoining east Uttar Pradesh and parts of northeast India.
August is likely not to throw up surprises, as per month-wise projections from Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC), the first of the penultimate month of May in the run-up to monsoon onset.
The combined June-July-August outlook revealed a largely uneventful monsoon but with suspected rainfall deficiencies in central India and parts of east-central and northeast India.
Monthly forecasts for August and September were not available but the September-October-November outlook showed most of the country doing reasonably good except parts of east India.
This is based on the RIGC reading that the weakening La Nina would rebound during the winter and persist up to early 2012.
It also signalled at the possibility of a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a see-sawing of sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the El Nino-La Nina in Indian Ocean, the country's own backyard.
When the SSTs are high in west Indian Ocean relative to the east, a positive IOD event occurs, and vice versa. A positive IOD is believed to favour the cause of a concurrent monsoon.
Most of India is likely to see good rains associated with the La Nina influence, according to the RIGC. As for the rest of the region, it said northeastern China may witness “flooding conditions.”
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Wednesday evening said that 24 hours ending in the morning saw fairly widespread rainfall being reported from Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
It was isolated over West Bengal, Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. An upper air cyclonic circulation hung over the central parts of Uttar Pradesh. A weather-making trough extended from this system up to Manipur across Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.
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