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The driest monsoon in six years ended this week but the sowing of kharif crops has continued to edge ahead of last year’s figures.
According to the latest estimates released by the Agriculture Ministry, as of Thursday, crops such as rice, soyabean, sugarcane and a variety of pulses have been sown over 1,031.37 lakh hectares (lha), 1.3 per cent higher than during the corresponding period last year.
The strongest El Nino in two decades adversely impacted the four-month-long monsoon which accounts for almost 80 per cent of India’s rainfall. It has left vast tracts of cropland water-stressed and despite the few spells of rain last month, could affect the Rabi season sowing as well.
The Ministry has already estimated that the first consecutive monsoon shortfall since 1987-88 will take a toll on foodgrain output.
The first advance estimates released last month expect a 2 per cent slide to 124.05 million tonnes (mt) from 126.3 mt the year before.
As per India Meteorology Department (IMD) data, the monsoon ended with a 14 per cent deficit with rainfall pegged at 76.06 centimetres.
Out of 36 sub-divisions, 17 reported deficient rainfall between June 1 and September 30.
Among mainly rain-fed areas, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, east Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada, central Maharashtra, north interior and coastal Karnataka, Telangana, and Goa and the Konkan coast were the hardest hit.
The Central Water Commission estimates that storage levels in 91 major reservoirs tracked by it are at 95.69 billion cubic metres (bcm), about 61 per cent of total capacity. The figure is 77 per cent of the average over the last decade.
“The total storage capacity of these 91 reservoirs is 157.799 bcm which is about 62 per cent of the total storage capacity of 253.388 bcm which is estimated to have been created in the country,” said a statement released by it this week.
The storage situation is particularly worrisome in the southern States where the Commission estimates levels at 34 per cent of total capacity.
Crop outlook
The higher sowing figures have been led mainly by increased area under pulses like arhar (tur), urad and moong. Acreage is 12 per cent higher than at the same time last year.
Area under rice, the main Kharif foodgrain, is marginally higher with more coverage in Punjab and Tamil Nadu.
Cotton coverage is about 8 per cent lower, and the Cotton Association of India (CAI) lowered its 2015-16 production estimate this week to 377 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), around 1.5 per cent lower than last year.
“Acreage under cotton is expected to be lower in the 2015-16 season due to the lower realisation of prices by farmers for their produce in 2014-15,” said Dhiren Sheth, President, CAI.
Sugar production will also decline this year by almost 5 per cent to 27 mt with the cane crop likely to be affected by the poor monsoon in Maharashtra and UP, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association.
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