A South Korean weather model has projected that overall rainfall for the country during August would be mostly below normal except over the foothills of West Uttar Pradesh, entire East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and West Bengal where it will be above normal. 

Parts of South Coastal Tamil Nadu in southern most parts of India and parts of Jammu and Kashmir also may see above-normal rain during August. This is usually the second rainiest month after July, but is also prone to triggering ‘break-monsoon’ where rains shut out except over some parts of the country.  

Most global models suspect a break-phase is dawning in August. The Korean model identified regions at risk as mainly the West Coast, followed by the entire Peninsular India, West and North-West India (excluding West Uttar Pradesh), Gujarat and adjoining West Madhya Pradesh. 

September may be better

In September, rains may return to most parts of the country except over the West Coast and most parts of adjoining Maharashtra (Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha), Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. West, North-West and East India may receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall.

Wednesday’s rampant well-marked low-pressure area weakened on Thursday, but not without dumping some of the heaviest rain over Telangana. At least two places in Mulugu and J Bhupalpally districts recorded exceptionally heavy rain at 65 cm and 62 cm, respectively. At least four other places in other districts saw rainfall figures of 40 cm or more during the 24 hours ending on Thursday morning. 

Managing climate risks

Abinash Mohanty, Sector Head-Climate Change and Sustainability, IPE Global, an international development organisation, and a reviewer of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, told businessline concerted co-operation is key to managing climate-related risks. Climate hazards do not follow political boundaries nor are guided by political biases. There is evidence all around infrastructures are clearly not ready to handle the torrential, erratic and incessant rain as witnessed in economic hubs such as Mumbai or Delhi or those in Gujarat and Punjab. “Rather than shifting goal posts, we need to strengthen local climate action and fix the fissured landscape by implementing nature-based solutions.”