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India Meteorological Department (IMD) has refused to take a call on a low-pressure area that the Sri Lanka Meteorological Department had said this (Thursday) morning had formed over the South-East of the island nation and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal.
In a noon update, the IMD did not upgrade the status of the system from that of a cyclonic circulation. It merely pointed to a circulation over the South-West Bay off South Sri Lanka coast but said that it has kicked up a strong barrage of northeasterly winds are over the Tamil Nadu coast and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts.
Heavy rain for five days
It will set off light to moderate scattered/fairly widespread rainfall over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during next five days.
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal from today (Thursday) until Monday. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on Friday and Saturday and isolated heavy to very heavy over South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema on Saturday and Monday.
Isolated heavy rainfall may lash Kerala and Mahe until Monday. Squally wind with speeds reaching 40-50 km/hr gusting to 60 km/hr (almost depression-strength) may prevail over South-West Bay, the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar along and off the South Tamil Nadu coast on today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday). Fishermen are advised not venture into these areas.
Storm may form next week
Meanwhile, the IMD added that another low-pressure area is likely to form over the South Andaman Sea around Monday and intensify (as mentioned in these columns already). It will move to the West-North-West during the subsequent two days.
Global models are divided over the area of landfall of the likely storm between the East Coast of India and the Myanmar coast.
IMD defers call
Earlier on Thursday morning, the Sri Lankan national forecaster had declared the formation of a low-pressure area and located it lying half over the South-East of Sri Lanka and half over the adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal.
On Wednesday, the IMD had delayed the formation of the ‘low’ by a day to Wednesday. By Thursday noon, it did not change the status of the system from being preparatory cyclonic circulation to anything higher (low-pressure area).
Future track of ‘low’
Once confirmed, this ‘low’ is expected to move West-North-West towards Sri Lanka and the adjoining South Tamil Nadu coast. The delay in its formation is not the best advertisement in regard to its prospects for future growth and intensification but there have been exceptions in the past when the slow grind has helped it to spring a surprise.
The IMD’s short-to-medium guidance puts it on a slow burn and on a course to the West past Sri Lanka into the South-East Arabian Sea before it heads towards Lakshadweep along the track cyclone Ockhi took four years ago.
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