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As the South-West monsoon makes steady progress, the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has said that the seasonal rains are expected to reach the southern parts of the country during May 16-20.
This falls within the normal ‘pentad’ (group of five days) fixed for the monsoon onset over Myanmar, with the climatological onset date being May 18 (the middle of the ‘pentad’) according to information on official web site.
Myanmar, Lanka onsets
It will take another 10 days for the rains to reach North Myanmar, after the monsoon establishes over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the Indian territorial waters, followed by Sri Lanka and mainland India along the Kerala coast, in that order.
Myanmar expects the monsoon to be a ‘moderate’ one this year, while Sri Lanka suspects that the rains could be excess in the South and East, while being normal to less than normal elsewhere.
The India Met Department (IMD) has already come out with its long-range forecast predicting a normal rain. It is expected to come out soon with a forecast of the onset date for the monsoon along the Kerala coast. However, private forecaster Skymet said monsoon may hit the Kerala coast on May 28.
Meanwhile, true to forecasts, the Arabian Sea has generated a low-pressure area away from both mainland India and Lakshadweep (core sitting over South-West Arabian Sea) and hence of no concern to any land region. The IMD has said that it would move in a West-North-West direction towards the Gulf of Aden, the same track forecast by leading global models from at least a week ago, and concentrate into a depression.
Though the depression doesn’t affect India, it has a direct link to the process of the making of the monsoon that is expected to hit Kerala earlier than June 1, the normal date of onset.
MJO wave in action
In turn, the churn in the Arabian Sea also signals the arrival of a helpful Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave from West Africa into the West Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea. The MJO wave is a periodical wave of clouds, convection and heavy rain that passes from West to East, and is known to trigger the onset of monsoon under its footprint, not to mention low-pressure areas, depressions or even cyclones.
According to the US Climate Prediction Centre, the tenure of the incoming MJO wave will witness the onset of the monsoon along the South-West coast (Kerala) of India.
Meanwhile, the IMD has signalled that a second low-pressure area may be in the making to the South of Kanyakumari (and West of Sri Lanka) which, too, will travel in a westerly direction towards the Somali coast in East Africa.
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