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True to India Meteorological Department (IMD) predictions, a rain-maker low-pressure area, second of the pre-monsoon season, has formed on Wednesday morning over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal, away from Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.
The Sri Lanka Meteorological Department said that the skies may turn cloudy across the Central, Southern, Western, Sabaragamuwa, and Uva provinces with a few showers in Uva province.
The IMD has predicted scattered to widespread rainfall over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands for five days with isolated thunderstorm/lightning from Friday to Sunday. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over the region on Saturday. Strong winds (40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph, almost depression-strength) may prevail over the South Andaman Sea.
Showers for South Peninsula
Showers are indicated for parts of South Peninsula as the low-pressure area strengthens around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Light isolated rain is forecast over Kerala and Mahe until Sunday as an incoming western disturbance extends a limb and sets up a friendly trough, over South Interior Karnataka from during Thursday to Sunday, and over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal from Friday to Sunday.
Some weather models indeed indicate the possibility of the ‘low’ moving away to the Andaman & Nicobar Islands and strengthening to become a depression or even a cyclone over the adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal. The IMD’s numerical guidance tends to agree, but there is no consensus on the track it might take.
Extended outlook
An extended outlook from Monday to next Wednesday said widespread rainfall with isolated thunderstorms, lightning and heavy rainfalls are likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands. Isolated light rainfall may prevail over parts of Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh (from the western disturbance), the South Peninsula and parts of North-East India.
Meanwhile, the IMD has put out a heat wave to severe heat wave warning over the western parts of the country in the absence of a calming influence of western disturbance. These conditions may prevail in over parts of West Rajasthan on Wednesday and Thursday while slight improvement is predicted for Friday.
Heat wave conditions
Heat wave to severe wave conditions are likely over West India for next two days while day temperatures may rise over North, Central and East India.
Heat wave conditions may persist also over isolated pockets over Konkan and Saurashtra-Kutch on Wednesday); over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan on Wednesday and Thursday; and over Odisha until Friday.
An outlook indicated a rise in day temperatures by 2-3°C over many North-West India and West Madhya Pradesh until Thursday and no significant change until Monday. No significant change is seen over interior Maharashtra until Thursday and the temperature may rise by 2-3°C thereafter.
Gradual rise in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C is forecast over most parts of East and North-East India during next two days and no significant change thereafter.
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