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A low pressure area has formed as expected over the south-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean (off the Sri Lanka coast) on Wednesday and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has straightaway put the region under watch for signs of intensification over the next two days.
Rainy outlook for South Peninsula
The IMD expects the system to move to the North-West aiming the Tamil Nadu-Puducherry coast over a period of the next 3-4 days. It will also rustle up the North-East monsoon to the next level, setting off a rain spell over many parts of the South Peninsula. Fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy falls, thunderstorms and lightning is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal until Sunday, the IMD said. A similar outlook has been maintained with respect to Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from Friday to Sunday, and over Kerala and Mahe on Saturday and Sunday. Isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Friday and Saturday.
High winds, rough seas
Squally weather with wind speeds reaching 45-55 kmph and gusting to 65 kmph (depression to deep depression-strength) may prevail over the South-West and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal, the Gulf of Mannar, the Comorin area and along and off Tamil Nadu until Saturday and along and off Andhra Pradesh from Thursday to Saturday. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas during the same period. Meanwhile, the IMD’s numerical models maintained the outlook for a stronger weather system brewing over the Bay on the trail of the current low pressure area. It is shown reaching within some distance of the North Tamil Nadu-South Andhra Pradesh coast in the next 10 days.
Active western disturbance
Meanwhile, to the north of the country, an incoming western disturbance in the form of a trough had reached central Pakistan by Wednesday evening. Its strength and intensity has triggered the formation of an induced cyclonic circulation ahead of it over south-west Rajasthan. Induced cyclonic circulations forming in this manner are capable of setting up weather in the form of rain, thundershowers and snow.
The IMD has forecast scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall or snowfall over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh until Thursday, and isolated light to moderate rainfall or snowfall over Uttarakhand. Isolated light rainfall or drizzle is likely over Punjab, Haryana and over West Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
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