India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared the formation of a low-pressure area over South-East Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea on Monday morning.

The warm waters of the Bay will allow the system to intensify rapidly as a depression on Tuesday and further as a cyclone (to be named Mocha) the very next day, the third day of system genesis, on Wednesday.

By then, the storm would have shifted bearing to South-East and adjoining areas of East-Central Bay and the Andaman Sea.

Alert to fishermen, ships

The cyclone is likely to move initially in a North-North-West direction (inverted ‘L’ facing the left) towards East-Central Bay till Thursday and, thereafter, recurve gradually to the opposite direction (North-North-East) towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts, the IMD said. 

In view of expected rough seas and high winds, the IMD advised fishermen, small ships, boats and trawlers against venturing out into the South-East Bay and adjoining areas of Andaman Sea from Monday and into South-East and adjoining Central Bay and Andaman Sea from Wednesday. Those currently navigating the South-East Bay and adjoining South Andaman Sea should return to safer places by Monday itself, and those over the East-Central Bay and the North Andaman Sea, by Wednesday. 

Recurving, midway

Numerical model predictions by the IMD as well as global models have been indicating the recurving track of the cyclone for a few days now, as reported in these columns.

Meanwhile, an incoming western disturbance lay stretched over Jammu and adjoining North Pakistan on Monday morning and will continue its journey to the East over the plains of North-West India and the Indo-Gangetic plains. 

As it enters the Indo-Gangetic plains, the western disturbance will be prompted to dive low into the Bay and trap cyclone Mocha within its extended limb, and carry the system along with it towards the East.

The cyclone will break up in landfall as it impacts the nearest land feature on view, which is the rugged terrain of Myanmar or adjoining Bangladesh, as per the IMD outlook.